Can I profitably see a SD agaisnt a Tag here

[Carmine]

Villian is 27/19/2 over a 100 hand sample. My image sucks this session as I've been the PF aggressor and folding before SD quite often.

Hero opens in CO with 44 (The Tags are to my left otherwise I will muck this often). Folded to villain in SB who 3 balls it. I call.

Flop: J6Jr
Villain c-bets obviously, Hero is aware of his image and decides the best line is ....

[Oink]

With a crappy image I will bet bet bet and call down any raise on the flop or turn

[vmacosta]

id jusr raise the flop and bet down and hope he tries to "induce bluffs" with 88 or whatever. A-hi will usually make a bad calldown here if your image is "bad". If your image is "better" you might be more likely to get A-hi to put in bad bets by waiting til a blank turn or waiting til he checks to you on the river.

I would have just quoted oink, as usual, but I'm not convinvced that calling down a turn raise is actually profitable.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
With a crappy image I will bet bet bet and call down any raise on the flop or turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread your post obviously

Pretty much agree with vmacosta

[Hobbs.]

Another thing to keep in mind is that we'd like overcards to make an incorrect fold on the turn as if the TAG has AK he has more outs than he thinks.

[sharpie]

I don't really like raising the flop, the equity isn't there, and I think it's advantageous to wait for the turn to make our decision. On a 7 or higher turn he has ~12 outs if we're ahead, so we'd rather overcards fold even if they'll put a bet in on the river. I wonder if this is a rare spot where a free SD could be good depending on the turn card.

[Nick C]

Given that our crappy image is that we fold a lot postflop, I probably just call down (with the plan of dumping my hand instead on an A turn).

However, I think Sharpie's free-showdown turn idea has its merits and might in fact be the best play, due to the hidden outs Villain might not be aware he has that Hobbs and Sharpie pointed out.

Meanwhile, the initial responses in this thread are confusing as hell [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Why, for instance, are we hoping 88 comes along to showdown with us (although I'm pretty sure it will)?

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
Meanwhile, the initial responses in this thread are confusing as hell [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Why, for instance, are we hoping 88 comes along to showdown with us (although I'm pretty sure it will)?

[/ QUOTE ]

i misread the part about our image being bad cuz we've been folding. Thought it was cuz we'd been caught pounding crap hands.

Anyway, the point i was trying to make was that by raising a JJ6r flop with a wild image we have a good chance of getting lots of hands to go into their calldown shell and that's good when you have a hand that can't stand a reraise but needs A-hi calldowns (or incorrect folds).

If your image is that of a folder, like here, then I don't like it as much cuz we could get c/r'ed on lots of bway or 2-flush turn cards and it will be hard to figure out whether calling down is correct.

[Robin Foolz]

you have a crappy image but you can work with this. mainly, ppl will fire with air more often now seeing that you're folding a lot, so you can play passively with good but not great hands and profit. also you don't want to raising/folding the flop from now because, again, you have a crappy image and ppl may 3 bet you when they're fos. or you can always switch tables.

anyway 44 is not a pp i would raise the flop with. your equity is garbage. if i had 88 then it's close; if i had 99 here, i'm definitely raising the flop. your equity here with 44 greatly hinges on what the turn card brings.

i think it's fine to call flop, call any non T-A turn and repeat river and you're golden. mission getting to sd complete.

[Robin Foolz]

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder if this is a rare spot where a free SD could be good depending on the turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]

note: i'm assuming sb's range here is something like top 12% is that fair?

sd raise is fine if we can fold to a 3 bet and if we think we're ahead when we do it. problem is, no matter the turn card (xcept the obvious 4), i don't think we're ever the favorite here.