50nl - To bet, or not to bet

[whyzze]

Second orbit, I'm about to stop playing, I was just tinkering with my HUD.

Anyways, in the few hands ive been at the table I can tell villian is passive and bad. I am sure that he c/c's the flop with his entire range. I dont feel I have an incredible amount of FE against an 8 on this turn. I also dont feel that he will bet the river without a strong hand.

So.....bet? or no?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $5
Hero (CO): $59.20
BTN: $19.25
SB: $66.70
BB: $103.55

Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, hero?

[yegon]

I could go either way against an unknown. K is a good card to double barrel although there are a lot of draws out there so I would favor checking behind.

Based on your reads (he does not fold a pair) I'd check behind for pot control. He will probably check a one pair hand on the river so you can get to SD cheaply. If he bets into you you can fold safely.

[Khumalo]

Make it ~6.75 on the turn, shut down on any river. If he's calling flop with his entire range, there's (thin) value to be had on a board this drawy, so I take a shot at it here (whilst realizing that I'm in a marginal, high variance sort of spot.) I'm doing this because villain is passive and will not pressure me with raises / bluffs / tough river decisions. So I fire the turn while I'm still likely to be (somewhat) ahead, then fold river to any normal, non-tiny bet (and assume he's checking river to me more often than not.)

[yegon]

you are right Khumlao there is value from the draws and if we can assume (bc he is passive) that he will not bluff a missed draw often then we can bet for value. It's a bit thin for me but I guess this is how the player better than me make money [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The question is if villain is on a draw often enough for this to be profitable. I guess we could assume a normal player is on a draw more often then not here but a passive player takes this line with any pair. I have seen passive players check call all the way with AA or even with 77, 88 in spots like these. Is that a consideration?

[Khumalo]

I've been playing around with Holdem Ranger and it's taking me awhile to construct a realistic-looking super-loose turn range for villain, but consider this result:

5d4d versus {random hand} on a 4c 8s 7s Kc turn is a 54% favorite! That's if villain shows up on the turn and calls our value bet with any two cards! So I'm beginning to debate the worth of betting this turn if we have virtually no FE, because villain's turn range needs to be HUGE for us to still be favorites when we're called on the turn here. I think that we have to discount passively played monsters (sets, big overpairs) from his turn *calling* range, give him a ton of flush draws, straight draws, and even naked overcard draws in order for our equity to rise above the 50% line. Or we need him to fold a few hands that might not like this board but are still ahead of our pair of fours (55, 66, some 7x, some high 4x.)

So ... unless I'm mis-using my range calculator, I think a turn bet isn't looking so good anymore versus this guy. I guess if we had middle pair it would become more conceivably +EV.

[whyzze]

there has to be some FE. Don't forget we have a gutter and that as unlikely as i think it is, not betting the turn could induce a bluff from missed draws.

[Khumalo]

We do have a gutter but are not thrilled with the 6 of spades, though it undoubtedly must still have value against an 'any pair' sort of villain. You know, you're right, it's hard to imagine that there's no FE, and we occasionally hit a big hand on the river (alas that 2-pair doesn't work as well), so maybe a turn bet is the best compromise, cause his calling range (as opposed to his check-min-raising range, say) is skewed towards draws and meh one-pair hands and we can hit him pretty hard when we make a straight. Checking turn to induce a bluff on the river from a passive, stationy guy seems counter-intuitive.

[yegon]

I'm kinda lost now. What do you suggest then? I'm still not convinced that betting is much better than checking. We do not have much of a hand why not try to show it down cheaply.

[Khumalo]

I'm suggesting that after some back and forth I finally think that making a between 1/2-2/3rds turn bet is slightly better than checking.

[icheckcallu]

easy bet.. we have a huge FE here