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#1
06-05-2007, 10:50 PM
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do I lay this down?
I have Q 10 middle late. 2 callers in front two behind. BB, raises it to 8, but says he meant to make it 12. He has been very aggressive and won several pots uncontested, so I haven't been able to see his hands. Everyone calls. Flop is Q 10 9 with a flush draw. BB bets 15, folds around to me. I raise to 40. Folded to BB who reraises to 100. He has 105 left. Do I lay this down? Or am I good here?
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#2
06-05-2007, 10:57 PM
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Re: do I lay this down?
What were the blinds? Stacks? I think the biggest mistake is being involved with Q9os in the first place. Postflop, he could very easily have KJ here. Maybe he just has a pair, but it's hard to say. I'd say fold, you can't be too attached to Q9 when you shouldn't have been playing it in the first place.
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#3
06-05-2007, 11:07 PM
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Re: do I lay this down?
QTo and you have position on him, but the re-raise makes me think he has a set of nines or tens--If he's a good player. That would make sense because a pocket pair doesn't really need position. IF he completely missed the flop he would have probably not re-raised. The other posobility is that he has a very good straight-flush draw in which you'd still only be a slight favorite to win. a made flush is possible too, but less likely as is QQ is another remote posibility. either way you have to ask yourself what two pair is worth?
Is this guy a donkey or does he just try to make you think he is? Do you want to go broke with the hand or do you want to wait for a better spot to get your money in?
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#4
06-06-2007, 01:11 AM
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Re: do I lay this down?
[ QUOTE ]
I have Q 10 middle late. 2 callers in front two behind. BB, raises it to 8, but says he meant to make it 12. He has been very aggressive and won several pots uncontested, so I haven't been able to see his hands. Everyone calls. Flop is Q 10 9 with a flush draw. BB bets 15, folds around to me. I raise to 40. Folded to BB who reraises to 100. He has 105 left. Do I lay this down? Or am I good here? [/ QUOTE ] I'm thinking based on his bet, he's on some kind of draw (flush or even straight) or a made hand (set or a straight). Your best case scenerio is that he was calling with AQ or he missed with AK and is drawing to an inside draw. You're about even on a good draw and you're behind on a set. That's a dangerous board. I would have called instead of re-raised considering the board and then take a card on the turn. Now it seems that he want to go all the way and you have to make a decision. Don't go broke on 2 pair. Until you get a read, I would probably lay this hand down. In person, you may be able to pick something up (tell) so it depends. But based on the preflop and post flop action, I would tend to fold in this situation the first time around at the table. However, maybe you push now and dip into your roll and maintain the table aggression. There's advantages to that. I guess it depends on your style really. I can justify either given additional information. I really need more info.
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#5
06-06-2007, 01:18 AM
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Re: do I lay this down?
[ QUOTE ]
QTo and you have position on him, but the re-raise makes me think he has a set of nines or tens--If he's a good player. That would make sense because a pocket pair doesn't really need position. IF he completely missed the flop he would have probably not re-raised. The other posobility is that he has a very good straight-flush draw in which you'd still only be a slight favorite to win. a made flush is possible too, but less likely as is QQ is another remote posibility. either way you have to ask yourself what two pair is worth? Is this guy a donkey or does he just try to make you think he is? Do you want to go broke with the hand or do you want to wait for a better spot to get your money in? [/ QUOTE ] The re-raise can also mean a semi-bluff. I may do this move with two overcards and a nut flush draw for instance.
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#6
06-06-2007, 06:28 AM
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Re: do I lay this down?
Given the read of a very aggressive player his range is quite wide from an overpair, two pair, good draw even TPTK, maybe a set. Very hard to know if you are well ahead or well behind. Given 105 left, 60 to call I think I speculate here and call with position.
Best case is we boat up and he hits his flush, second best the turn misses potential draws and he checks in which case we can't let a free card come. If an obvious draw comes in he may bet, if he does we have to fold as a thinking player would have us on the draw. I think the call is ev+ given how aggressive he is, if he wasn't very aggressive normally it is a fold for me. Nasty hand though.
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