Live $3/6: bottom set, drawy board, multivay pot

[No1Addict]

Hi all,

Here's a strange hand I've played this weekend. Please let me know what you'd put villains on and what line you'd take on the flop.

UTG: Folds
UTG+1: Folds
UTG+2($130): Calls
MP1 ($450): Calls
MP2: Folds
CO ($1300): Calls
Button ($460): Calls
SB: Completes
Hero ($410): Checks (8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

Flop ($36): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, <font color="red"> Hero bets $25 </font> , UTG+2 calls $25, <font color="red"> MP1 raises to $125 </font> , CO calls $125, Button calls $125, SB folds, <font color="red"> Hero? </font>

Reads: UTG+2 – Very loose, passive. Lost a big pot to CO with top two vs. top set and is steaming.
MP1: Loose aggressive. Is the strongest player at the table but still not a great one. I’ve played with him before and he is prone to be too aggressive with marginal hands. So far has played few hands this session.
CO: Loose passive preflop, very aggressive if he hits. Was very lucky so far and won 2 big pots when he flopped a set over top two pair and then turned a boat vs. a flopped flush. He had aces once and he limped in middle position.
Button: Loose passive, ‘check the nuts’ type. He’s seen a lot of flops today and is complaining about not connecting.

I’m being perceived as a tight passive player. I started with $600 and lost a few pots recently.


The pot is now $461, I have $379 behind and only $31 invested. What to do and why?

[hielo_uno]

if there is a time to for a set, this is it. you got two callers for the 3bet and a player behind you, you are only beating two pairs and draws which got alot of outs against you. FOLD!

[jetsetboy]

Is this live?

A set with less than 100bb =&gt; get all the money in the fastest u can. Simply push.

[No1Addict]

Yes, it's live. My weekly game, lots of passive players me included.

I've been trying to be more aggresive and this is a spot where a laydown just seams weak.

I'm thinking any draws would steal eachother's outs so they may not be that strong.

[DrClaw]

Seems to me like the button's flat calling is the only thing that you really have to be worried about. If the original raiser is as aggressive as you say, he's earned your call because he could be fighting with a hand you have dominated.

If the button will simply smooth call with a set of 9s or the nuts multiway (as you've said) you have to try to get a read on him about how comfortable he is in the hand.

In the end, unless you are confident that the button has 9s, then I think you just have to lose your short stack with a set here. You'll be ahead much of the time, and even when up against JT you have some outs.

[rdrr]

No-brainer shove in my opinion

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
No-brainer shove in my opinion

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I think I like calling and open-shoving any turn.

I think you have a better chance of getting multiple callers when your shove is down around half a pot and everyone in this passive game can talk themselves into a call.

I simply don't care about 99 and QQ. If those hands are out they get my stack. Its definitly possible someone has JT (like button, waiting to get it in on a non-pair non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] turn). Just the same you've got a ton of equity in this pot, and I think there's more EV trying to keep it multiway than facing down against the other big hands.

That said, there's nothing wrong with just shoving here.

[sambo_888]

shove. in some hands its alright to go broke!

[warrantofice]

I would not shove. Way to many callers, I think your kinda SHO on this hand.

But saying that I would shove, just its probably not the best thing to do.

So with that many callers i would expect someone to have top pair, someone to have a flush draw, someone to have 2 pair and someone to have the straight...

I think all that math leaves you with very little chance of filling up.
(if you push on the flop)
Worst Case:
Against AKd, JTs, Q9o and you 88 you looking at 10% equity.

Best Case: 2 callers - 23d, Q9o = 54% equity

What will most likely happen
3 callers - AKd, JTo = 33.55% equity

I don't know what to do.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]

What will most likely happen
3 callers - AKd, JTo = 33.55% equity

[/ QUOTE ]

Equity edge in a pot that is already big. This is +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold.