6 max and shorter win rates

[kahntrutahn]

The variance of a 1bb/100 WR is just hell on earth. I suggest staying where you can win at least 1.5bb/100. However, that is simply a personal opinion [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jaVinci]

How many hands do you consider enough before a near true winrate can be seen?

[Guy McSucker]

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How many hands do you consider enough before a near true winrate can be seen?

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You will never know your true winrate until you die so stop worrying about it for goodness' sake.

With a standard deviation of 18BB/100, if you want to know your winrate to within half a BB/100 i.e. plus or minus 0.25BB, working with two standard deviations, you'd need 1.6 million hands. Even then there's a 5% chance you're out.

Have your opponents changed over that time? Has your own play changed over that time?

If the answers to both these questions are no, you are a liar or misguided.
If the answer to either question is yes, your winrate is meaningless.


I maintain that it is much easier to know if you're playing a winning style, by looking at your play and your opponents play, than it is to calculate a winrate based on results. Get on with winning, or learning to win, and stop fretting over your winrate.


Guy.

[kahntrutahn]

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With a standard deviation of 18BB/100,

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Yea, shorthanded your std. dev. will be much higher than 18, as such, your winrate will not converge for 4million+ hands [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Hock_]

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1 is good, 2 is very good, 3 is exceptional.

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I'd be surprised if there were more than 15-20 players total whose true winrate at 100/200+ is 1.5/100 or higher.