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#13
11-21-2007, 04:01 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
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Don't like pre-flop. As played, easy flop bet. [/ QUOTE ] This is only easy if we know he puts 1/4 of his stack in with a lot of hands. We would also need to know that he lays down 88 etc. here. I just get the feeling you get looked up a lot here. 
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#14
11-21-2007, 04:01 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
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Don't like pre-flop. As played, easy flop bet. [/ QUOTE ] What's your thinking as to why it's an easy flop bet? pt - I'm probably never going to do this again as apparently everyone thinks it's the wrong thing to do. I just wanted to re-steal from the button but I guess it's not something to do from the SB. Would anyone do it from the BB? If you wouldn't do it because it's NL25, at what levels might you consider to start doing this?
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#15
11-21-2007, 04:02 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
I wouldn't do it to an unknown, not just because its NL25.
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#16
11-21-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
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I wouldn't do it to an unknown, not just because its NL25. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, against someone we know - what kind of stats are we looking for villain to have in order to try this?
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#17
11-21-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
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I wouldn't do it to an unknown, not just because its NL25. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed, get a good read over a decent sample then play back at him.
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#18
11-21-2007, 04:05 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
I would fold preflop and try to get a better read than "he raised the button last time." There isn't much one can infer from 2 steals in a row other than the fact that the guy can raise in position.
If you're unfamiliar with Bayesian inference, you can check it out here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference It's also discussed in <u>Mathematics of Poker</u>. You need more evidence about villain's play to reraise liberally here. As played, if stacks were deeper, I find that people are less likely to cold call out of the big blind with an AX hand than they are a pocket pair. This flop misses most of those PPs, so I would bet and give up on the rest of the hand if called/raised, unless a really great bluff card shows up on the turn. You should be able to fold out JJ-22 (which didn't hit their set), and possibly QQ or KK. With deeper stack sizes, if villain cold-calls out of the big blind with a hand like AQ or AJ and refuses to fold the flop, make a note of his looseness and take him to valuetown the next time you DO have a hand like AK/AQ/AA/77/22 in this spot. As played with the actual stack sizes, c/f all streets unless you runner-runner 2pair+ on a check-down.
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#19
11-21-2007, 04:07 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
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This is only easy if we know he puts 1/4 of his stack in with a lot of hands. [/ QUOTE ] Morons put in tons of money preflop trying to "get lucky" with random suited garbage. You have more FE than you think on this flop. It's very hard for villain to call here without at least top pair. If he calls with 88 or whatever, just hit a Q and bust him.
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#20
11-21-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: NL $25 - Resteal from the blind gone wrong?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is only easy if we know he puts 1/4 of his stack in with a lot of hands. [/ QUOTE ] Morons put in tons of money preflop trying to "get lucky" with random suited garbage. You have more FE than you think on this flop. It's very hard for villain to call here without at least top pair. If he calls with 88 or whatever, just hit a Q and bust him. [/ QUOTE ] Serious question - Is it reasonable to assume that he is a moron because he put in 1/4 of his stack in a 3-bet pot preflop? Also, Do you make this move on any board or do you like the fact that its got a 2 (that he is less likely to hit)?
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