QJ valuebet 2-pair at the river vs NIT?

skibbel · #1 10-05-2007, 09:19 AM

Villian 16/14/4.6/31/1k hands (8 flop, 5 turn)

UTG ($76.30)
MP ($144.85)
Button ($60.40)
SB ($101)
Hero ($219.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, SB raises to $4, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($8) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $16, SB calls $10.

Turn: ($40) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn sucks i think most of his range KT/AQ/AJ/KQ. His river AF is 0.67 so i decieded to cb and fold to a reasonable riverbet.

River: ($40) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets ???

Hm crappy card. Is this still a valuebet?

KhalynYohrk · #2 10-05-2007, 09:28 AM

If your not betting the turn I dont think you can bet the river. Maybe 20-25.

terp · #3 10-05-2007, 10:00 AM

if he has you beat it's with a wacky AQ. turn check is fine versus a nit. bet river, expect to lose rarely, get called slightly more and generate a fold mostly.

I rebluff you · #4 10-05-2007, 10:08 AM

Why does turn scare you so much?? You've got 2 pair, AQ/AJ = far less than 50% of his range. He could easily have AK KQo KQs KJ QJ JT 99 etc etc. You're still in front and you want to build this pot. By checking you are letting him draw to a straight since you sure aren't drawing to anything. This turn is a bet, question is $34 or $20.

CruS · #5 10-05-2007, 10:10 AM

Given you underrepped your hand somewhat, I'd shoot a value bet on the river.You can still be called by worse.

terp · #6 10-05-2007, 10:11 AM

irebluff, there is way more to consider when deciding whether to bet than whether you are "in front" or not.

also your flop raise should be to $20-22.

I rebluff you · #7 10-05-2007, 10:13 AM

terp, I like those who choose to read 2 words out of 5 lines and take that out of context, I really do.

Jay Riall · #8 10-05-2007, 10:16 AM

Plenty of value left in a bet on the turn imo. He still has a flush draw/pair+draw enough to make betting correct and a tonne of river cards can really suck for your hand. If I got called on the turn I think a river check is good most of the time.

skibbel · #9 10-05-2007, 10:19 AM

"He still has a flush draw/pair+draw"
He doesn't have pair+FD. Look his flop AF.

Jay Riall · #10 10-05-2007, 10:23 AM

QK, JT, T9, QT, Q9, a lot of the time even really aggro people will play the nfd like this one the flop and he can still have a bare fd.

In spots like this you want to put in money on only street (turn or river) and it is usually much, much better to do it on the turn than the river.