Set of 4s against river aggression

[keikiwai]

The question is whether you think he's bluffing or not.

If he's bluffin you should call.

If you think he plays Q9, 96, or Q6 like this you push.

If you think he was slowrolling the flopped straight, you should call, because you can't be sure enough.

It's call or push here. I don't think you can be 60% sure, or whatever it is, that you're beat, so folding is not an option.

[anacrime]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is pretty obvious here, that the turn and river cards don't help the Villain vs your set. Anything that beats you beat you on the flop.*

If someone flops a straight on a 643 board vs my middle set, I am going to get stacked 95% of the time. Not getting stacked in these situations usually means you are not getting enough value out of your sets.

*With the exception of 99 and QQ, both of which are extremely unlikely holdings given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]QQ and 99 are not extremely unlikely. He probably has one of those two close to 10% of the time here. 80/4s are very capable of checking QQ in the BB. BTW he could also have AA or KK. River push is fine though.

[Quercus]

[ QUOTE ]
*With the exception of 99 and QQ, both of which are extremely unlikely holdings given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

QQ being extremely unlikely I understand.

Why is 99 extremely unlikely?