100nl:flopped two pair against ultimate Donk!!!

[crunny]

Villain is 70/23 over ~20 hands

Reads:
1. We know that he called a PFR and flop bet with Q9 on a JJ2 board, he then went on to win the pot somehow.

2. Limped pot. He 4X overbet pot into 2 other plyers on a 543 flop. Takes it down and shows Q9.

3.Very next hand he bets pot in another limped pot. Takes it down and shows 82 (air).

Ok now on to the hand:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $139.15
BB: $39.90
Hero (UTG): $106.00
UTG+1: $223.50
MP1: $80.55
MP2: $30.85
MP3: $22.90
CO: $7.85
BTN: $46.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
Hero calls $1.00, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $3.00</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $3.00, 2 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $2.00

Flop: ($13) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $13.00</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $12.00

Turn: ($39) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $30.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $123.15</font>, Hero ???????

<font color="blue"> My first dilemma is whether to value bet or check behind on the turn. I think he calls with any Ace and any draw, probably not middle or low pair though. Alternatively, a 3 is definitely within his range so do i just check behind.

I elect to value bet and he pushes. Do i call? We have seen him bluff smaller pots with air, plus this could be a semi bluff or even just an A. He could also have the 3 for a str8, set, bigger 2pair. Whats your move?</font>

[Specialwon]

I call without giving it a second thought. You have 13 redraws to the nuts, 3-4 draws for a chop or win on the str8 and the pot offers you just under 4:1. Plus villain is a maniac. What are you waiting for? Christmas?!

I play the rest the same way.

[Larude]

13 redraws to the nuts? I think you have no redraws to the nuts at all, only to the probable nuts. I like to check behind on the turn for pot control, if you were behind on the flop you probably stay behind on the turn (+ any three), only hand we need to protect from is a flushdraw, but there are also a lot of hands that beat you. I would say an ace in his hand that you beat is pretty unlikely, he would have lead that bigger on the flop or check-raised (although he is a donk) &gt;&gt;&gt; you are most likely not valuebetting the turn.

[crunny]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 13 redraws to the nuts


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something really obvious but i can only count 2 redraws to the nuts, that is two 2's.

[chicken10der]

A2 will never be the nuts on this board.

[Kos13]

1. 70/23/??? (infinity?)
2. Fold PF.
3. Is this the very next hand after the 82 bluff?

[crunny]

[ QUOTE ]
A2 will never be the nuts on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol i must be realllly stupid tonight. I cant figure out what beats us if the river is a 2.....

EDIT: ok figured it out, AA, lol

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have 13 redraws to the nuts


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm probably missing something really obvious but i can only count 2 redraws to the nuts, that is two 2's.

[/ QUOTE ]
He probably misread and also thought you had a flush draw.

[chicken10der]

55, 44, AA

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A2 will never be the nuts on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol i must be realllly stupid tonight. I cant figure out what beats us if the river is a 2.....

[/ QUOTE ]
AA, 55, 44.

EDIT: DAMMIT. 1 minute late lol.