Risk aversion and the expert line

[_TKO_]

The ability to process information is absolutely necessary in order to become an advanced player, but I think the top players will inevitably take this skill away from the table. The fact is that advantages are created through gaps in information. Consider the old-time road gamblers that scouted games that were so good that barely anybody even knew the rules. I often see posts like "What's standard?" and "Which site should I play on?", which I see as an easy-way-out approach to gathering information. Unfortunately, this approach has a significant, yet often unnoticed drawback in all but the most primitive games.

If you've ever touched upon game theory, you'll find examples of solutions to games where an optimal solution exists in the presence of perfect information. That is, each player's strategy cannot be shifted without suffering a loss. However, there are frequently multiple optimal strategies, where you could choose any one and still be maximizing your EV. For example, say you are facing a pot-sized flop bet with a mediocre draw and are considering taking advantage of FE by pushing. If your opponent needs to fold precisely 40% of the time to make a push breakeven, and you knew that he would fold exactly 40% of the time, then you should be indifferent to folding or pushing; both strategies are optimal, assuming he'll never pay you off. The point is that switching up your strategy is simply not enough. The advantage can only lie in the information gap.

The closer to perfect your information is as compared to your opponent's, the more significant your advantage. Let me reiterate the important part of that sentence - as compared to your opponent's. It doesn't matter how much you know, only how much more you know. This brings me back to the unmentioned drawback I so subtly mentioned earlier. In today's poker world, there is a ton of information available to the general public: books, magazines, forums, television, etc. Whether or not your average opponent is taking advantage of this information is almost a moot point. The real question is whether or not you are doing anything to avoid diminishing your edge to the point where you are fruitlessly paying the house for the wonderful opportunity to break even. As the average player assimilates more information, your win-rate approaches zero. Passivity in poker theory kills your win-rate. Thinking about the game more deeply away from the table will ensure that you don't fall victim to the slowly increasing informational baseline.

And if you are the type of person that's lurking around, asking for standard plays and easy games, then remember this: if you are a losing player trying to take advantage of easy information, then you are slowly decreasing your loss rate to the breakeven point, but that win rate will never become positive.

This will all seem obvious to many of you. However, I think we sometimes tend to get so caught up in our auto-pilot strategies that we forget about sustaining our long-term informational advantage.

[_TKO_]

Okay, I realized after looking at the thread title that I completely detracted from the original point I was trying to make. In terms of risk aversion, I'll often find myself waiting for somebody else to solve an EV problem, or for someone else to write a book that will help me, or for someone else to find me a good game. But when information like this becomes public, the amount of time it's advantageous is limited. It's like the old days of casino whoring. A few people were taking advantage of a ton of these bonuses, but as the information spread, the better bonuses shut down. If you're anything like me, then you waited until some of these sites were "approved" by other posters' success stories. This is a clear example of how aversion to risk kills profitable opportunities. The few people that discovered the art of casino whoring and didn't care about risking a loss... they made a ton of money.

Just remember that proactively creating your own informational advantage could be the difference that makes you cross the expert line.