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#11
01-18-2006, 02:44 PM
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Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
If you give him a tightish calling range of 77+, AJ+. You need him to fold about 50% of the time here to make a push correct.
Assuming this is never a straight steal, you would need him to be raising a range like: A9+, KT+, 44+ to make a push correct. Since we have to add in at least 10% pure bluffs here. I am certain a push is better than a fold. I would be interested to here what others thought about other lines than might be better than a push. I could see calling and leading the flop being valid here as well. ***I forgot about antes, you need him to fold even less than 50% of the time for a push to be profitable. Plus this can help keep people off your blinds in the future, which is always nice. 
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#12
01-18-2006, 02:54 PM
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Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
[ QUOTE ]
If you give him a tightish calling range of 77+, AJ+. You need him to fold about 50% of the time here to make a push correct. Assuming this is never a straight steal, you would need him to be raising a range like: A9+, KT+, 44+ to make a push correct. Since we have to add in at least 10% pure bluffs here. I am certain a push is better than a fold. I would be interested to here what others thought about other lines than might be better than a push. I could see calling and leading the flop being valid here as well. ***I forgot about antes, you need him to fold even less than 50% of the time for a push to be profitable. Plus this can help keep people off your blinds in the future, which is always nice. [/ QUOTE ] You need for him to fold about 45% of the time if he always dominates you if he calls. Realistically, you may be called by 55-99, Ax, or Kx. So maybe you need 35% folds. I am pretty sure the push is cEV+ unless you are sure the big stack is a very tight raiser. If villain calls and loses, he will no longer a big stack, so I think you have decent FE. Plus, if it is borderline, I want to defend my blind and gamble to make the big money. You could also play it as a stop and go. Call and push any flop. Once you call, there is 33K in the pot and you have 38K left, so I think you have to push any flop, unless you flop a flush or it comes ATT or something.
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#16
01-18-2006, 07:55 PM
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Results
I thought for quite a while and ended up pushing in. The big stack took his time, but eventually called with AJ and I was knocked out. At the time I wanted to gamble, in order to put myself into good position to make the final table, but as a few people have said, I really had no reason to panic and I also did not have a solid read on this player. Thanks for the help.
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#18
01-18-2006, 08:03 PM
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Re: Results
All the results prove is that AJ was in his range, and would call. Any thoughtful analysis knew both of these things were true before hand.
Desperation is a reason to make a move. It is never to pass one up.
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#20
01-18-2006, 08:14 PM
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Re: Wat do do with A10s here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is too speculative a holding. Dump the hand and make a play when you get a pair or AK, AQ later and he pulls the same raise. You are NOT in panic mode yet. [/ QUOTE ] Meant to clarify that I'm also pushing pairs. MP isn't late position, obviously, so I think I can lay down KQ and AJ here. I dont know for sure of how I would play it. But if this is your range to call, players will be killing each other for the right to raise your blind. [/ QUOTE ]
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