Bills +17 at NE

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Bills +17 Easy Money

[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit, now I kinda want to lay the 17...

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

- C -

[zOrO2k6]

do it, and ban me. cuz i put my picks like everybody else in the forum

[27offsuit]

[ QUOTE ]
Bills +17 Easy Money

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think many people are saying this.
They're saying NE -17 is a horrible, horrible bet.

[thelyingthief]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
points and wins MATTER.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone has picked the Bills to win this game.

Do you really think the Pats will try to pile on points in the 4th QTR in week 3 because when the playoffs start they might need the 7th tie-breaker against another 14-2 team?

================================================== ==========
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you make one enormous assumption: the patriots will go 14/2. if brady's injured, their center goes down, moss tears an MCL, you can hope for 14/2, but good godd__ned luck in getting it. teams don't think that way, not with a %100 major injury rate plaguing their rosters year in and year out: they bank their money today and hope for the best tomorrow.

now then, addressing other caveats, consider: the patriots won 10 of the previous 21 games by 17 or greater points. this, from a team by their own analysis, working with mediocre talent at the receiving position. of those 11 failures, 5 were loses. the patriots, when winning, scored 17 or more points on their opponents ~65% of the time.

with a revamped passing game, they have increased their margin of victory, and appear even more insistent on beating their opponents powerfully. that this is a division game, and therefore job 1, makes questions of motivation rather immaterial, as was my intent in so stating. had i known that i would be questioned by the bean counters i would have been more analytical and precise in my presentation (i.e. done your thinking for you).

the question really has less to with the patriots, who may very well have a mediocre day, scoring < 30 pts., than it does with their opposition. do any of you really imagine the bills capable of scoring > 12pts in today's match-up? verrrrry remote. the fact that this IS a divisional game, IS a patriots offense capable of scoring at will on any but the elite of the NFL (hmm, perhaps the bills are "elite"?), IS a buffalo defense lacking a run stopper, no corners, and inept at best on the offensive side of the ball, lacking depth and/or well schooled talent on the OLine ; without a passing game to spread a defense just proven against SD's acclaimed running game (unwarranted, really) not only makes a bet on 17 points or greater reasonable, it demands it. that the cover 2 has no need of corners, as was claimed by another poster above, is seriously flawed reasoning, but even if true, without the ability to stop the run, when the patriots enter the red zone what exactly will buffalo do? the idea of the cover 2 is to keep the deep threat contained. ok, bend and not break may work in the NFL: but NOT break is the operative inclusion.

i say this (to quote LT): if this game were played 100 times, the patriots would win 99, and blow them out 75.

if you get nothing else from this post, take this to heart: good bets have NOTHING to do with the breadth of the spread per se, and everything to do with the teams the line seeks to define.

i hasten to remind you of SF's 1994 championship year, when regularly heading to post as prohibitive favorites. believe me, the books would have loved to boost the line higher could they so have managed, but because so many bettors were reluctant to lay the odds, said books were constrained by practical considerations to adopt relaxed lines. i made very good money on SF that year. indeed, their purchase of neon deion for cb duties, has much in common with the patriots' acquisition of moss and that tight end from miami: deals designed to make them unstoppable. and just as i bet the 94 49'ers without the slightest trepidation, i will do so with the patriots in 07--that is, until injuries begin dogging them, as i suspect it will, later in the season.

it is nonsense, indeed stupid, to avoid lines "because they are too high", as if there were some point beyond which the well known ability of the odds maker to establish a 50/50 split, not only in betting opinion, but in actual fact, has ceased to function properly.

in this case, they are not high enough: that is my opinion; the patriots are the team to beat in the NFL, by a wide margin, and their degree of talent annihilated a very competent (albeit compromised by turner's appointment to the head coaching job) SD, without, it appeared to me, laboring at the task.

can the patriots beat buffalo by 50 points? yes, i think they can. i like the bet. i like it A LOT. so sue me.

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
i say this (to quote LT): if this game were played 100 times, the patriots would win 99, and blow them out 75.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you're saying you'll pay 100:1 on the ML and 3:1 on Bills +16.5, so I'll say put your money where your mouth is. I'll even give you an edge on your own numbers. I'll take:

Bills ML for $25 to win $2,375 (95 to 1)
Bills +16.5 for $100 to win $275 (2.75 to 1)

- C -

[kaboshedx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
points and wins MATTER.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think anyone has picked the Bills to win this game.

Do you really think the Pats will try to pile on points in the 4th QTR in week 3 because when the playoffs start they might need the 7th tie-breaker against another 14-2 team?

================================================== ==========
TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

[/ QUOTE ]

you make one enormous assumption: the patriots will go 14/2. if brady's injured, their center goes down, moss tears an MCL, you can hope for 14/2, but good godd__ned luck in getting it. teams don't think that way, not with a %100 major injury rate plaguing their rosters year in and year out: they bank their money today and hope for the best tomorrow.

now then, addressing other caveats, consider: the patriots won 10 of the previous 21 games by 17 or greater points. this, from a team by their own analysis, working with mediocre talent at the receiving position. of those 11 failures, 5 were loses. the patriots, when winning, scored 17 or more points on their opponents ~65% of the time.

with a revamped passing game, they have increased their margin of victory, and appear even more insistent on beating their opponents powerfully. that this is a division game, and therefore job 1, makes questions of motivation rather immaterial, as was my intent in so stating. had i known that i would be questioned by the bean counters i would have been more analytical and precise in my presentation (i.e. done your thinking for you).

the question really has less to with the patriots, who may very well have a mediocre day, scoring < 30 pts., than it does with their opposition. do any of you really imagine the bills capable of scoring > 12pts in today's match-up? verrrrry remote. the fact that this IS a divisional game, IS a patriots offense capable of scoring at will on any but the elite of the NFL (hmm, perhaps the bills are "elite"?), IS a buffalo defense lacking a run stopper, no corners, and inept at best on the offensive side of the ball, lacking depth and/or well schooled talent on the OLine ; without a passing game to spread a defense just proven against SD's acclaimed running game (unwarranted, really) not only makes a bet on 17 points or greater reasonable, it demands it. that the cover 2 has no need of corners, as was claimed by another poster above, is seriously flawed reasoning, but even if true, without the ability to stop the run, when the patriots enter the red zone what exactly will buffalo do? the idea of the cover 2 is to keep the deep threat contained. ok, bend and not break may work in the NFL: but NOT break is the operative inclusion.

i say this (to quote LT): if this game were played 100 times, the patriots would win 99, and blow them out 75.

if you get nothing else from this post, take this to heart: good bets have NOTHING to do with the breadth of the spread per se, and everything to do with the teams the line seeks to define.

i hasten to remind you of SF's 1994 championship year, when regularly heading to post as prohibitive favorites. believe me, the books would have loved to boost the line higher could they so have managed, but because so many bettors were reluctant to lay the odds, said books were constrained by practical considerations to adopt relaxed lines. i made very good money on SF that year. indeed, their purchase of neon deion for cb duties, has much in common with the patriots' acquisition of moss and that tight end from miami: deals designed to make them unstoppable. and just as i bet the 94 49'ers without the slightest trepidation, i will do so with the patriots in 07--that is, until injuries begin dogging them, as i suspect it will, later in the season.

it is nonsense, indeed stupid, to avoid lines "because they are too high", as if there were some point beyond which the well known ability of the odds maker to establish a 50/50 split, not only in betting opinion, but in actual fact, has ceased to function properly.

in this case, they are not high enough: that is my opinion; the patriots are the team to beat in the NFL, by a wide margin, and their degree of talent annihilated a very competent (albeit compromised by turner's appointment to the head coaching job) SD, without, it appeared to me, laboring at the task.

can the patriots beat buffalo by 50 points? yes, i think they can. i like the bet. i like it A LOT. so sue me.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this a "level"? haha funny guys, real funny.

[Artdogg]

no way im reading that, cliff notes?

[wiper]

cliff notes: i followed the logic of 17 being too many points for an nfl team twice...once, drunk, last night for 1u, and again this morning, forgetting about last night, again for 1u..

so now i have 2u on the [censored] bills at the best team in football..

gogogo..

[McFadden]

Just one note. Backdoor covers are partly due to the winning team letting up. The Pats aren't very likely to do that, given that they demolished the Jets in the 3rd & 4th quarters and then played even with the Chargers the entire second half to maintain the halftime lead as the final margin of victory.

That said with all you guys on the Bills I decided the tease the Pats down to 11 which you can call donkish but I feel much more comfortable with that margin, as two touchdowns will do the job.

[kyro]

I'm just hoping they win.