need a plan vs a 2+2er

[willw9]

O this is against me. Hehe..

[willw9]

I think the real question in this hand is the river. I called the turn, another 9 hit the river, and you shoved. I think this is a fairly easy c/f against not just me, but anybody with a brain really. What do you expect to get value from? I dunno, with my hand the turn was exactly a call, but I did put you squarely on JJ without much thought. I/anybody could have soo many boats though on that river, given my line. Like I think it's fair to say I could have every possibly boat combo on that river. A shove gets value from one hand (exactly my hand, like exactly) if the villain is dumb (but I ain't dumb yo).

<font color="white">I had 76cc if you haven't guessed already.</font>

[forhasta]

Doesn't check-calling on the flop just scream JJ ??? A reraise preflop followed by being scared by an overcard on the flop?

I like Nick Royale's analysis - If we bet the flop we disguise our hand as well as getting some FE.

Now, let's say the turn blanks and you bet flop and were called. What's your action ?

[Bramsterdam]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the real question in this hand is the river. I called the turn, another 9 hit the river, and you shoved. I think this is a fairly easy c/f against not just me, but anybody with a brain really. What do you expect to get value from?

[/ QUOTE ]So why did you call then?

[willw9]

Um I didn't...

[Nick Royale]

Tbh I don't really like any of our options (on the flop), I think b/f, c/c and crai all have benefits and which of them we should chose is depending on our read of the 2p2er.

[willw9]

FWIW I think i like c/c because of the reasons bilbo outlined. I rarely rarely just call the bet (unless I have AA/KK, which is possible, but it's definetely a small part of my range here); I'm either raising or folding. Therefore b/f sucks.

[rakes.a.beach]

[ QUOTE ]
Tbh I don't really like any of our options (on the flop), I think b/f, c/c and crai all have benefits and which of them we should chose is depending on our read of the 2p2er.

[/ QUOTE ]

they're very close in EV. I don't like crai cuz it doesn't make much sense and will get looked up a lot.

I think b/f is better than c/c in because you don't have to play OOP for the hand.

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tbh I don't really like any of our options (on the flop), I think b/f, c/c and crai all have benefits and which of them we should chose is depending on our read of the 2p2er.

[/ QUOTE ]

they're very close in EV. I don't like crai cuz it doesn't make much sense and will get looked up a lot.

I think b/f is better than c/c in because you don't have to play OOP for the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

You act like crai is a bluff. It's really not. We're not worried about getting looked up with crai, we're not trying to fold out AQ-AA, sets or two pair. It's done partly for balance, partly because it's the only real way to protect your hand and your equity in this pot which stands up quite well vs his range both for calling pf and betting when checked to. Another benefit is that you will most definitely get looked up by worse on some occasions on this board. When they fold, you got them to pump dead money into the pot and then fold which is a pretty gross error. When they call with better, you have the gutter and the bd/fd which people discount too much and is what gives you sooo much flexibility in lines on this flop vs a good, tight aggressive opponent.

I'd much rather b/c (and probably would about 65% of the time) and embrace variance here than b/f. As I said previously, doing anything at all that has you folding this hand on this flop vs a typical 2p2 tag is about the only mistake you can make.

I threw together what I think is a pretty tight range of hands that a typical tag is calling pf some percentage of the time and shoving this flop with just about always and I'd guess that they are going to b/c pretty darn close to the same range here when checked to them. Unless my range or super basic math estimations are way off, it's at a minimum a small mistake to b/f. Again, this is a tight range and as you expand it and even include some hands that he probably shoves sometimes and folds others (like smaller pairs, AK that isn't clubs, AJ/A9 type hands) I think bet/folding really starts to become a significant mistake.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec

Board: Tc 8c Qh

Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0: 42.477% 41.15% 01.33% 28108 908.00 { JcJs }

Hand 1: 57.523% 56.19% 01.33% 38386 908.00 { 88+, AcKc, AQs, ATs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 7c6c, 6c5c, AQo, KQo }

[BGnight]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the real question in this hand is the river. I called the turn, another 9 hit the river, and you shoved. I think this is a fairly easy c/f against not just me, but anybody with a brain really. What do you expect to get value from? I dunno, with my hand the turn was exactly a call, but I did put you squarely on JJ without much thought. I/anybody could have soo many boats though on that river, given my line. Like I think it's fair to say I could have every possibly boat combo on that river. A shove gets value from one hand (exactly my hand, like exactly) if the villain is dumb (but I ain't dumb yo).

<font color="white">I had 76cc if you haven't guessed already.</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

How much did he bet on turn that would allow him to c/fold river? I just don't see what he could bet that would not commit him to river no matter what. To say river is an easy c/fold is kinda silly. c/call yes, but he can never fold river if he bets turn.