Lucky 97

Hince · #1 08-23-2007, 07:11 PM

Villian is 19/11/1.5 small sample. Relatively unknown.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($132.75)
Hero ($150.30)
BB ($99.50)
UTG ($102.85)
MP ($97.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($8) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BB calls $5.

Turn: ($18) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $14, Hero raises to $47

FishSticks · #2 08-23-2007, 08:23 PM

The thing I don't like about this spot is that if he pushes, you'll be getting 3:1 and be priced into calling it all off as a dog.

Peeda · #3 08-23-2007, 09:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The thing I don't like about this spot is that if he pushes, you'll be getting 3:1 and be priced into calling it all off as a dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that the best thing about this spot? Any subsequent action is guaranteed to be +EV. I think this is better against a more aggressive player who will bet that scarecard A with a huge range, but I think this is also good as a default play given sample size.

FishSticks · #4 08-23-2007, 09:09 PM

Well, it's not great IMO to stick 90 into an 18 pot with a draw when we're doing the all in calling and not the all in betting. I mean, we could open lead 75 and we'll be guaranteed a +EV call if he pushes over.

I agree that against a real aggro type this is a solid play since he'll bluff that card often, but villain seems pretty nitty so I'd default to just firing the 2nd barrel here.

big dummy · #5 08-23-2007, 11:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The thing I don't like about this spot is that if he pushes, you'll be getting 3:1 and be priced into calling it all off as a dog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that the best thing about this spot? Any subsequent action is guaranteed to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Future action is guaranteed to be +EV, only because you've possibly committed your stack seriously -EV. If you put in 90% of your stack as a 20/80 underdog, putting in the additional 10% is +EV. Should you be happy about this?

Not saying that it's not a good move. Just that "any future action is +EV" is a bogus reason for doing anything.

SABR42 · #6 08-23-2007, 11:08 PM

I prefer just firing turn again.

Bigmoney · #7 08-23-2007, 11:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer just firing turn again.

[/ QUOTE ]

sightless · #8 08-23-2007, 11:41 PM

I bet this turn again

Hince · #9 08-23-2007, 11:52 PM

I'm starting to see where my reasoning is flawed.

My thinking (at the time) was that he would call with a queen if I fired again a lot of the time, and I would have a difficult river decision in a bigger pot. His turn bet suprised me, but I didn't think the turn helped him. I figured that I have a good amount of fold equity, and if he did have a good hand he would pay me off on the river if he calls. If he raises, I'm basically committed and hopefully I suck out.

The problem is that this villain has shown no signs of being a floater, or being aggressive. So his range on the turn is a lot narrower, and my fold equity lower. It's probably a mistake to commit my stack in such a small pot against a player with a narrow range. I mean, I don't think he fires a lone queen here. He is either on a total bluff or has at least TP. He might fold a lone ace... but probably not that often.

I think this is a case of FPS. Against good aggro players, I like this play a lot more because this is a weak hand more often.

Does this sound better?