how bad is this? 3r sat

markdeeznutz · #1 04-13-2007, 12:19 PM

This is in a $3rebuy Sunday mil satellite. Villain has been pretty active, stealing at least once an orbit while I've been at the table. The only hand he's shown down is AJ which he called a push with out of the big blind.

There are 18 left and 11 of them get entries. The other table has more short stacks and both have players playing way too many hands. One orbit through should easily eliminate a few players who were way too active considering blinds were going up to 10k/20k the next hand.
I kinda pushed all in without thinking through this and immediately regretted it. Am I right in thinking that this is a standard fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t20161)
MP2 (t53440)
MP3 (t32508)
CO (t162789)
Hero (t36843)
SB (t93858)
BB (t66406)
UTG (t72108)
UTG+1 (t43184)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises to t31908, 1 fold, Hero raises to t36243

bacats32 · #2 04-13-2007, 12:27 PM

you have to make a stand and make a move somewhere. You can try and rely on the fact that blinds will take ppl out but that isn't a guarantee. Plus, if you have put him on less than prime hands no not at all bad.

b-komplex · #3 04-13-2007, 12:28 PM

I would think given your read folding would be horrible. You still need to quite a bit of the field and it looks like you are pretty short relative to the rest of the stacks.

seke2 · #4 04-13-2007, 12:32 PM

Blinds going up to 10k/20k next hand is a big issue. You probably need to win a pot SOMEWHERE to survive the bubble, and unless you can push as first in on the next hand when the 72k guy is in the blinds (he could actually fold if you pushed in on him, even though the pot odds would be insanely good for him to call), you probably won't be able to steal blinds from anyone, the rest of the table is too short.

I think the blinds are a huge huge factor here. There's no 7.5k/15k level between 6k/12k and 10k/20k? That would make a difference.

I mean, basically, you need to chart out a way to make it another few orbits. If you just blind out, I don't think you're going to make the top 11 unless someone is nice enough to fold the BB to you. You need to win blinds probably at least 1 time here to make it. If you win this hand, you basically make it, and you're probably about 50/50 against his range. If you fold this, it's because you think you have a better than 50% chance of making cut after folding this hand...I'm not totally sure that's the case here.

Interesting, though.

markdeeznutz · #5 04-13-2007, 12:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the blinds are a huge huge factor here. There's no 7.5k/15k level between 6k/12k and 10k/20k? That would make a difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats right.. it goes straight to 10k/20k. The play in these is really terrible (people fold for fractions of a BB or 1.2 BB in the mid stages to a shortstack push, pushing A2 UTG, etc) so its hard to estimate how much of a chance I have to make it if I fold but it could be greater than 50%. But if I pick up the blinds just one time within the next orbit, I think I'll be able to finish with an entry very easily. It might even be feasible that I could make it without winning a hand due to others careless play. (for example, this tournament was over 10 hands after I got eliminated)

seke2 · #6 04-13-2007, 01:09 PM

Well, you were at the table and should have some idea about this. Theoretically, the next hand, action folds to you and you push your 37k. Do you think the guy UTG guy with 72k knows enough to fold getting insanely good pot odds? What about the next hand, do you think you could get the 43k guy who is currently UTG+1 to fold to a push? If you think you might be able to actually steal blinds from one of them, you might be better off folding here. You really need to figure out HOW you are going to gets blinds once, and the blinds moving to 10k/20k when you have a 35k stack.

bobbycharles · #7 04-13-2007, 02:04 PM

I don't think this is a no-brainer fold at all. With villain being hit with the blinds in a couple of hands, his push range is real wide here.

Then again, I'm not saying it is an easy push either. I've played in tons of these, and you're right, the play is attrocious. At this stage I have both tables pulled up and I'm watching the blinds and stacks closely to see who is going to be hit and when. At 10000/20000, you'd be amazed at how many of these players will give you a walk in the BB even with only 10k behind.

I guess what I'm saying is, I'm wussing out and playing the fence here. It depends on blinds, players etc.