NhlNut November Pucks

[NhlNut]

yesterday: 3-3, -0.21
ytd: 40-36, +10.21

possibilities for tomorrow:
buff -.5 -113, -1.5 +165
SJ -.5 -122, -1.5 +139
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Wanted a new thread, with an appropriate title.
Reader participation is encouraged. If you don't like a pick, tell me why. I'm here to learn too.
All bets are Regulation only if possible.

buff -.5 -113: it's buff. enough said.
buff -1.5 +165: ditto

SJ -.5 -122: 3 teams have made the Ana to SJ jump. Det, and Dal lost. Minny won. NYR not that quality. Not laying the -1.5 as SJ is coming home from a long east coast trip.

car -125: I expect huet v. ward. by all reports ward was excellent last night, and should start.

fla -.5 +126: Aubin v. belfour. Fla good at home. Deserved a win vs. SJ. belfour been good lately. Tor on back to back.

van +.5 -118: minn -.5 is 4-7. without gaborik. playing the +.5 more than anything

[MyTurn2Raise]

why do you like the regulation only picks?

[Freerollin`]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you like the regulation only picks?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really interested in the answer to this as well.

[silentbob]

Me three.

[NhlNut]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you like the regulation only picks?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) It makes things simpler.
2) I don't like betting on shootouts?

I suppose that if you have a +180 favorite, you don't mind letting the shootout settle things. (taking +180 on a 50/50 shot) I'd rather take the +.5 and +110 or so and book the win for capping the close game.

I've been betting the nhl since there were no shootouts and OT was 5 minutes of 5x5, where no one ever scored. I always found it much easier to cap then. Now I can go back to that style.

As we get on in the season, I think the value of that +.5 will go up as teams fight for points. We shall see if that is reflected in the lines. The concept of good ties is critical to this. As the season wears on, there will be games that both teams want that one point and will take their chance in an OT/shootout. I made a comment on one of the Minn games that it appeared they were playing for a tie in the second period. If you watched the Kings/Pitt last night, you saw a great example of this. Once Pitt tied the game early in the 3rd, both teams slowed down what had been a free flowing game.

[NhlNut]

1-5, -4.52 [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
ytd: 41-41, +5.69

For Nov 3: lean to Wash, Clb, Dal, Ana. Subject to prices.

[NhlNut]

[ QUOTE ]

For Nov 3: lean to Wash, Clb, Dal, Ana. Subject to prices.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clb +123: good price against a very cold team.
dal +105: better team with + money.

[NhlNut]

1-0-1, +1.05
ytd: 42-41, +6.74

lak +101: how can phx be favored over anyone? betting Garon will start.
Lak/phx un6 -120: phx displayed a trap last night. didn't work. I think it works better against Lak. Expect a defensive effort out of phx, or gretz ought to get the boot. if cloutier is in net, i'll probably buy it back.

car +167: ward v gerber. I have not figured out OTT yet, but +167 doesn't take much figuring.

nash +.5 -118: better team(?) with the +.5. win+tie percentage > 54%

wash +132: god help me, I can't let esche/phil lay this. my gut tells me this one will lose, but I have to do it.

nyi -.5 +138: nyi quietly beating some teams. dipietro playing better than lehtonen. atl back to back.

[NhlNut]

adding
pit +189 (ot included): re yads+freerolin' (sorry to put the jinx on y'all)

also, the CF/doesn't count/fade me pick: tOSU -24. go bucs.

[Freerollin`]

[ QUOTE ]
adding
pit +189 (ot included): re yads+freerolin' (sorry to put the jinx on y'all)


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok all, this means DO NOT PICK PITTSBURGH and lay the farm on SJ. When the three of us agree on something and reference eachother in the thread, the game NEVER wins.