Fold a Set for Just a Bet? Twice?

[SNOWBALL]

check behind on river in the first hand. If he has something that will call you (2 pair or w/e), it would have CRed you on the turn. Against a random hand on that river, you have like less then 70% equity.
The bottom line is that you are not a favorite when called.

Hand 2 is really ugly. Limp it PF. turn is standard.
The river is interesting. There are 45+15 (can't count KTdd 2x)
hands that are a straight or flush that should be very solidly within most villains' PF bb defense range, and very solidly in their "call 2, then 2 more" on the turn range.

You are getting 19-1, so you need to come up with 1/20*60=3 combos of hands that you beat on the river. I think I know the answer. Wait for it...





































OH WAIT, here's where the analysis breaks down. You don't have a read, so you have to call and hope you get shown 2 pair, and that the other dude doesn't have 66 BECAUSE YOU ARE GETTING 19-1 AND THIS IS LIMIT [censored] HOLD EM.

"payoff with confidence"

[James.]

Hand 1 is usually an easy fold. I would also often fold any two-pair or higher set combo as well. I think it's potentially closer than most have given credit and as such a minority of the time(25-30%) we need to call here because there are multiple two pair combos possible and I’ve seen people do stranger things when HU on “scary” boards.

Even so I treat folds like this as situations that reap two rewards. We earn immediate value from our hand(valuebetting the 1BB on the river) and the potential value of increasing our opponent's bluffing frequency in the future beyond an optimal level.

Hand 2 is a tough spot for me, IMO. Obviously the easy answer is call, next hand, thank you.

But I'm constantly trying to examine all of my situations more thoroughly than what is simply dictated by autopilot moves. It might be +EV to call, but that doesn't mean it's the highest EV play.

Sure I’m getting great odds, but given the typical nittiness of the average online 5/10 game this is a situation I feel as if I can fold without recourse. HU it’s a super easy call, but this is a protected pot after heavy action where it's obvious nobody is folding. BB is betting for value on the end, pure and simple. After the way the action has unravelled I don’t see how I’m ever ahead here. Calling two cold not once, but TWICE on a big street is a draw 99% of the time. I grant you guys that calling isn’t likely giving up a lot, and giving this kind of action and then folding can sometimes be targeted in the future, but as long as I adjust for it later I feel as if it’s acceptable assuming the fold is right ot begin with.

As for the results in hand two, BB had 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and UTG had Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. At least I was in second place.

Thanks for the responses.