Shell Game

WhiteKnight · #1 11-08-2007, 04:25 PM

When I was in Berlin, I observed what is commonly known as a "shell game." There was a guy with a mat, three "shells," and a small ball of some sort. The "dealer" would put the ball under one of the shells and shuffle them around using some sleight of hand. People would then be given the option to wager a fifty euro note on which shell the ball was under.

I watched this for half an hour or so, maybe 50 trials. Every single time I was able to correctly determine which shell had the ball. (Un?)fortunately I was young at the time and didn't have sufficient money to take a shot. I'm going to go out on a limb and assume this guy isn't charitably giving away his money, but the game didn't seem very hard to beat. People seemed to lose with surprising frequency, I think some of them might have been inside men. At one point the dealer even offered to give me a shot after someone had guessed unsuccessfully... why would he be offering a neutral EV bet?

So what's the gig? Anybody else familiar with what I'm talking about and how this guy hustles money? Some sleight of hand after the victim picks perhaps?

SheetWise · #2 11-08-2007, 07:03 PM

Not a lot different than Three-Card Monte, the setup is almost identical.

When you have a large wager out (read: your last wager), it's best to leave your selection unexposed and view the two unselected to determine if it's a win. Make sure you're the one to expose the losers [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

MCS · #3 11-14-2007, 09:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why would he be offering a neutral EV bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really think this is neutral EV?

Of course it was easy to guess when there was no money up there. That's the whole idea.

CORed · #4 11-14-2007, 07:31 PM

As far as I know, shell games and three card monte are always scams. Very likely the person that was winning was a shill, working with the "dealer" As soon as a mark gets in the game and starts to bet serious money, he'll lose every time.

WhiteKnight · #5 11-15-2007, 02:21 AM

Sure it's a scam, but how?
It's not like people were giving him money and then having him go through his routine. He'd do the sleight of hand and shuffle some shells around, and then ask if anybody wanted to take a stab for 50 Euros...

Lottery Larry · #6 11-15-2007, 12:03 PM

ask any magician about this.

Trust your first instinct. Don't play unless you hate money, or want to burn some off for curiosity.

Decks · #7 11-16-2007, 02:01 AM

I watched some guys with a nice setup of this game on the Rambla(s?) in Barcelona several years ago. There was one main guy who was constantly moving up and down the street with his cardboard box and 3 cards. He was surrounded by a swarm of guys betting huge sums of money every 'hand'. There were guys throwing down 20s, 50s, even 100's and 'winning' and then walking away. Me and my friend sat at a cafe watching them for like 20 minutes. The guys who won would slowly circle around the street then come back and bet again, sometimes winning sometimes losing but always putting on a good show. Every few minutes some mark (so ovbious who they were) would flop down a 20 or 50 and not a single one got it right. We followed a group of 3 young guys who were laughing and chatting about losing a 50 euro note and how they were so sure it was the right card.

Moral of the story: Don't trust those shady Spaniards.

Seb86 · #8 11-16-2007, 04:00 AM

Its always like in 99.999999999% of the time ( the last 0.0000001% is a moron who didnt understand how it works) a scam.

Totally beatable though, with one friend we once got there and I acted like I was very intrested to bet 200 euros, my friends acted like he tried to stop me telling me it was a scam so I told him I would bet 50 and then 200 if I win.

Guy let me win the first one as he was sure to get 200 on the next one.

Obv we just got out of there, as there were liek 30 people watching they just couldnt do nothing. Guess it could be dangerous to mess arround with some of them though.

tomdemaine · #9 11-17-2007, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Its always like in 99.999999999% of the time ( the last 0.0000001% is a moron who didnt understand how it works) a scam.

Totally beatable though, with one friend we once got there and I acted like I was very intrested to bet 200 euros, my friends acted like he tried to stop me telling me it was a scam so I told him I would bet 50 and then 200 if I win.

Guy let me win the first one as he was sure to get 200 on the next one.

Obv we just got out of there, as there were liek 30 people watching they just couldnt do nothing. Guess it could be dangerous to mess arround with some of them though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice reverse scam. Probably not worth the possible beating for the sake of 50 euros but I like it.

McMelchior · #10 11-17-2007, 07:28 PM

According to John Scarne the shell game is - in addition to the already described group of shills - fixed when the operator "lifts" the shell selected by the mark.

The ball is hard but slightly elastic, and the operator simply squeezes it with the edge of the shell forcing the ball to fly through the air and out of sight without the mark being able to tell.