200NL; KK; Should this flop worry me here?

[schlucky1]

6 max 200NL table

Villain is around 30/7/1.2 over a small sample (~100 hands)

Hero is in SB w/KK

PF: UTG calls $2, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, Button raises to $11, Hero re-raises to $36, folds to Button who calls $25

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero?

As soon as this flop hits, I get a sick feeling. The only part of his range I beat here is 99,TT, and AK. So, what's my line here? Honestly, my first instinct is c/f if he bets strong.

[george w]

with stats like this his range could be much wider than you're giving credit for but i'd still be weary of course. cbet a normal amount. probably just shove if raised.

[FishSticks]

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probably just shove if raised

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If by shove, you mean fold, I would agree. I don't think this guy raises the flop with anything you beat.

As nitty as it sounds, I don't think c/f is terrible here - I really doubt this guy bets this flop with an underpair or AK, and I wouldn't be shocked if he checked behind AQ even (although he probably folds that preflop anyways).

In this spot I'll either bet once on the flop and then give up if I get further action, or check with the intention of calling only one bet. Definitely don't want to play for stacks here.

[Mike MacIntosh]

Raise more PF, t44 sounds about right.

[schlucky1]

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probably just shove if raised

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If by shove, you mean fold, I would agree. I don't think this guy raises the flop with anything you beat.

As nitty as it sounds, I don't think c/f is terrible here - I really doubt this guy bets this flop with an underpair or AK, and I wouldn't be shocked if he checked behind AQ even (although he probably folds that preflop anyways).

In this spot I'll either bet once on the flop and then give up if I get further action, or check with the intention of calling only one bet. Definitely don't want to play for stacks here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree w/not playing for stacks here. This guy has not done anything out of line thus far, and I think w/a pf raise % of 7 he has a pretty narrow calling range as well.

Flop: Hero checks, Button insta-pots, Hero?

[HoldEmNewby]

Call and donk the turn? call and check raise turn? pick a line (obviously adjust if board texture goes to hell).

[JackAll]

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probably just shove if raised

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If by shove, you mean fold, I would agree.

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Lol ... gold.

I think I c/c here actually since one c-bet means we haver no pot control.

[Addict_x]

IMO your RR amount PF is fine. You have to lead on the Flop 3/4 of the pot or so. If he smooth calls, I'd be worried. If he raises (and I assume AQ is not in his pf range after your RR)I'd fold.

However, 100 hands is a tiny sample. If he has been card dead, AQ might start looking huge to him w/ a Q high board. My point is, yeah he looks like a nit, but even Lags go card dead and have to nit up once in a while. Take the stats w/ a grain of salt and trust your first instinct.

[shpanko]

If we are betting, someone please tell me why we are betting? Is it for value? protection? to fold out better hands? I don't know if a bet accomplishes either. I'm not saying you should c/f by any mneans, but I'm not sure if a bet is correct

[Av9114]

What do we think is in his range? He is playing 30/7 not like 10/7 so he might not fold much to a re-raise. I would think that he has TT+, AJ/AQ+. Stack sizes?