AJ facing overbet , what does it mean?

[BetweenTheLines]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $34.70
BB: $29.30
Hero (UTG): $24.05
CO: $39.80
BTN: $53.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.85</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.50</font>, BTN calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.80</font>, BTN calls $2.80

River: ($10.65) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $15.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $15.00 returned to BTN

Pot Size: $10.65 ($0.50 Rake)

villain plays 16/9/1.28, no reads,nothing noticeable till now.
Is this a strong bluff or a strong hand?I timed out while thinking about it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[catoandtonic]

This is very rarely a pure bluff. Risking 15 to win 5.30 isn't a good deal here. It is possible that villain knows this and is exactly why he made this bet. However, I would expect him to have at least an ace almost always. That doesn't change the fact that your just not getting a good price.

Very easy fold.

[kroeliewoelie]

You are beating only A2,A3,A4,A5,A7,A8,AT
You are beaten by AK,AQ,A9,A6,K9, any two clubs, 96

Considering the action I expect a hand out of the second group a lot more often than a hand out of the group you beat. You've made clear you have the ace and villain doesn't fold. So you are beat here way too often to make this call profitable.

[catoandtonic]

[ QUOTE ]
You are beating only A2,A3,A4,A5,A7,A8,AT
You are beaten by AK,AQ,A9,A6,K9, any two clubs, 96

Considering the action I expect a hand out of the second group a lot more often than a hand out of the group you beat. You've made clear you have the ace and villain doesn't fold. So you are beat here way too often to make this call profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

All aces are ties except A9 and AK.

[ama0330]

bet 2 on flop, and bet/fold 4 on turn. as played, fold and you have done well. your hand is never good here versus this player, considering his stats.

[BetweenTheLines]

[ QUOTE ]
bet 2 on flop, and bet/fold 4 on turn. as played, fold and you have done well. your hand is never good here versus this player, considering his stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

please elaborate,I allways make 3/4 cbet so why change?
my plan was to bet/fold the turn but why risking more there,
does it look too weak?

[ama0330]

IMO 3/4 cbets look weak at 25nl. Your turn bet should be more because to a perceptive opponent you are reprsenting weakness and will be raised off your hand.

[Iwineverypot]

[ QUOTE ]
This is very rarely a pure bluff. Risking 15 to win 5.30 isn't a good deal here. It is possible that villain knows this and is exactly why he made this bet. However, I would expect him to have at least an ace almost always. That doesn't change the fact that your just not getting a good price.

Very easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're correct about easy fold, but just to clear 1 thing up, he's not risking 15 to win 5.30, I see your logic here but it's incorrect. Just because he put half the money in the pot doesnt somehow make it smaller -- once you put money in the pot it's not yours anymore. He's risking 15 to win the entire pot, this is a bit nitpicky but I want to nip the bud of this logic now until you really hardwire this type of thinking into your brain.

[catoandtonic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is very rarely a pure bluff. Risking 15 to win 5.30 isn't a good deal here. It is possible that villain knows this and is exactly why he made this bet. However, I would expect him to have at least an ace almost always. That doesn't change the fact that your just not getting a good price.

Very easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just because he put half the money in the pot doesnt somehow make it smaller -- once you put money in the pot it's not yours anymore. He's risking 15 to win the entire pot, this is a bit nitpicky but I want to nip the bud of this logic now until you really hardwire this type of thinking into your brain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Iwin,

I did not consider at any time how much money came from whom in this pot. I was just making the point that we don't actually beat any aces. If villain is not bluffing, then our best case is risking 15 to win ~5.30. Of course, 15 to win 5.30 isn't entirely correct because it does not include times villain is bluffing and we scoop the whole pot.

A more accurate representation:

Times villain has lesser hand than Ace: we win roughly 25.65
Times villain ties with ace: we win roughly 5.30
Times villain beats ace: we lose 15.00

We are risking 15 to win either 5.30 or 25.65.

[Craggoo]

Just to try and stir up a little argument (i know this is definitely not the case in this hand), is it possible that villain is ever doing a pure bluff with a hand like Kx knowing that:
a) you like your hand but not enough to bet
b) you have Ax but cant possibly call a PSB on the river (or a huge overbet)
c) without a monster you will usually fold on the river UI