50NL Tough spot on river with 99

[dimeetrees]

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($51.85)
BB ($58.80)
UTG ($88.25)
MP ($51.55)
Hero ($57.25)
Button ($100.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($5.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, BB calls $4, UTG folds.

Turn: ($13.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $8</font>, Hero calls $8.

River: ($29.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $19.5</font>, Hero ???

Final Pot: $49

I have to think im beat, Villian is 17/14/3.5 over 1,400 hands...

His line is way too strong here, but at the same time im not sure what hes trying to represent.

[BevillTheDevil]

TBH I think the deciding factor in this hand is the turn, does he raise UTG w/ like SC?? Just given the stats id guess he has a tight UTG range. He fires the turn like the 8 helps him so i think that narrows his range to like either a set, 78, maybe 66, possibly TT/99 or combo draw (i wouldnt put 69/46 is his range and id probably say less likely he c/c OOP w/ overcards and hits a FD). The river seems like a pretty standard fold (unless he has really high bluff tendencies), but the turn is where im unsure whats correct. If we are callin the turn bet, I think we pretty much have to fold to any river bet even if it blanks. At this point we are hopin to get to SD cheap and prayin that villian will check to us on the river. Theres not many hands that call a turn raise that we are ahead of besides draws(if that) IMO, so there is no value in raising the turn really a raise would be for protection. I dunno, if we call the turn it seems like we are hopin he is drawing, misses, and checks to us which seems pretty bad. I think we should raise or fold the turn not quite sure whats best tho.

[Iwineverypot]

Bevil, this isn't the UTG raiser, this guy called the raise from the BB. I put this guy on a flopped/turned set and fold the turn. As played river is a super easy fold, this guy is value betting. There's a small chance he's bluffing or had some sort of draw, but given his stats you're not ahead here often enough.

[Dumle]

You played the hand fine up until river, now fold.

Dumle

[JPeezy55]

If UTG is at all LAG, consider re-popping pre-flop to define his range.

Flop: I agree.

Turn: Seems a little weird, he might just be firing at a scary board but it's likely a set or straight. It would probably be "above-the-rim" to fold here, but, as mentioned, if you raise he calls with nothing that doesn't beat you (except a weirdly-played A8, which isn't happening). Probably a fold on the turn now that I think about it but in the heat of battle I'm probably calling like you did.

River: No way you can do anything but fold as far as I can see.

[Kasane]

I think we can parse his actions one significant way:

Opener was UTG, and he (and you) expected him to cbet. UTG checks, you bet, BB knows that UTG is folding and he calls with his monster instead of c/r of your trapped bet that he was expecting.

I don't put people on sets very often, sure looks like one to me though. Dry board, reasonably smart villain, flop action...

I don't think I could fold turn, nope, nor raise that. But once it gets to the river -- man, that looks like a value bet through and through, and it's not A7. Does a villain of those stats call pf with A7? I don't, and I'm a lot looser.

[Hail Eris]

Dude has 88 more often than not.

[geekylucas]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't put people on sets very often, sure looks like one to me though. Dry board, reasonably smart villain, flop action...

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. The board is getting somewhat connected when the turn card comes. A set now needs to bet to protect the pot.