NL100 - 3-Bet shove with low overpair on this flop?

SuchaDonk · #1 08-14-2007, 10:47 PM

NL100. Villain is about 21/18/4 over about 100 hands.

I realize that I'm probably either beat or against a semi-bluff. Is villain semi-bluffing here frequently enough to make a shove correct? Or is he too likely to have a set or JJ,QQ?

Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($98.50)
SB ($108.90)
BB ($201.70)
Hero ($149.30)
MP ($320.20)
CO ($99.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $3, MP calls $3, 1 fold, Button calls $3, 2 folds.

Flop: ($10.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $8, MP folds, Button raises to $32

jkkkk · #2 08-14-2007, 10:52 PM

I think his range is 44/77/99/97s/JJ/most draws

I prob just dump it unless I think he is too /loose/agg and has things like 42s in his range.

Schwang · #3 08-14-2007, 10:59 PM

I think most 21/18 villains 3bet 99+ here, so I'd be worried about 77, 44 and 97s here. Since you are 150bb deep I don't think you can push here correctly and with calling you'll most likely have a very hard turn and/or river decision.
I think folding is the best play here, but I suck in spots like these.

Erudito · #4 08-14-2007, 11:07 PM

Fold. I think you are beat here with a set, 99, 77, or 44 are possible hands in villain range. It is possible that villain is on a flush draw Ax suited of clubs. So the question is how much equity if villain is making this move on AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac8c, Ac7c. Against this range you are slightly behind. Therefore, you don't have much equity. Fold is the best decision here.

SuchaDonk · #5 08-14-2007, 11:26 PM

Thanks for the replies.

bruin · #6 08-14-2007, 11:44 PM

would you guys fold AA here? Because the difference between TT and AA here is very small.

SuchaDonk · #7 08-15-2007, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
would you guys fold AA here? Because the difference between TT and AA here is very small.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good question. Does anyone who advocates folding with TT here play the hand differently with AA? If so, what is the reasoning?