50NL: I want to pick off a bluff, have reads, can I?

[BoozeHound]

Villain 24/17/2/100 and I have been battling a bit. The very last orbit He donked into me on a 633 2-tone board. I raised his donk repping an overpair, he folded.

This hand he instacalled the turn when the flush hit. When I showed weakness I planned to consider calling a bet, he bet a good amount for value/bluff I'd think.

Due to preflop I feel he can't have a better overpair, so he's either got flush, low pocket pair, or complete air. Given recent history I feel like I have to call at least some % of the time. Thoughts? How's my line up to this point?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $17
Button: $81.05
Hero: $67.05
BB: $49.25

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($6.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4.5</font>, Button calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($15.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, Button calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($31.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $15</font>, Hero?

[andrew484]

With hands you beat here I think that the villain tends to check behind. I don't know why he would bet small pocket pairs so strongly on the river (unless he was specifically trying to get you to fold a higher PP, but I wouldn't give him that much credit). On the other hand, you checking the river really lets him just bluff away so that makes folding harder. So, sometimes I call here, but I fold more often I think.

Another thing to note, he open limped the button. I almost never see 24/17 types doing this, so I wouldn't completely discount slowplayed overpairs.

[SayGN]

I would completely discount overpairs...overpairs would have raised at some point in this hand.

So you have the option of calling $15 in a $45 pot? That's 3:1, so you need to win the hand 25% of the time for this to be breakeven. As long as he doesn't have 3 of a kind or better more than 75% of the time, your call is good...considering he is a tricky player, I think this is a good time to make the call here.

[RickA]

If hand was played in a vacuum I would strongly consider a fold but his play raises some suspicions. Tough to turn down the odds especially given the bit of history you have. I'd call

[UncleGogi]

I would call this river ONLY if I have note on him: "Bluffs with air on river with 1/2 PSB" because you really beat nothing.