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#1
07-07-2007, 12:07 AM
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Push or Fold OESD on flop?
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)
Villain is 80/23/2.6 after 50 hands. Is this a push or a fold on the flop? <u>SB: $4.90</u> BB: $3.65 UTG: $28.60 CO: $5.35 <u>Hero (BTN): $10.90</u> Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.60</font>, SB calls $0.55, 3 folds Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to SB Flop: ($1.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $1.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $10.30</font>, SB calls all-in for $2.80 Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to Hero 
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#3
07-07-2007, 12:17 AM
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Re: Push or Fold OESD on flop?
This is a fold imo.
Realistically, at best you're drawing to ~11 outs, most likely to 8, and many times you're drawing to a split w/ only 3 outs to win. And with villain shortstacked, you have very little fold equity here.
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#4
07-07-2007, 12:27 AM
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Re: Push or Fold OESD on flop?
[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold imo. Realistically, at best you're drawing to ~11 outs, most likely to 8, and many times you're drawing to a split w/ only 3 outs to win. And with villain shortstacked, you have very little fold equity here. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but his pot odds are huge. $3.00 already in the pot, and the SB only has $2.80 more. Assuming NO fold equity, we need to win just over 32% of the time, which is approximately equivalent to 8 outs. Surely we do have some fold equity, and our overcard means we could potentially have 11 outs. I push, although I think it's close.
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#5
07-07-2007, 12:32 AM
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Re: Push or Fold OESD on flop?
[/ QUOTE ]Yeah but his pot odds are huge. $3.00 already in the pot, and the SB only has $2.80 more. Assuming NO fold equity, we need to win just over 32% of the time, [/ QUOTE ] Assuming you push, and you have no fold equity (i.e., villain calls): You are betting $4.3 ($1.5+$2.8) to win $5.8 (pot has $3, villain has to call $2.8 more) That requires 42.6% equity.
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#7
07-07-2007, 12:40 AM
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Re: Push or Fold OESD on flop?
[ QUOTE ]
[/ QUOTE ]Yeah but his pot odds are huge. $3.00 already in the pot, and the SB only has $2.80 more. Assuming NO fold equity, we need to win just over 32% of the time, [/ QUOTE ] Assuming you push, and you have no fold equity (i.e., villain calls): You are betting $4.3 ($1.5+$2.8) to win $5.8 (pot has $3, villain has to call $2.8 more) That requires 42.6% equity. [/ QUOTE ] Damn you're right. I forgot the extra $1.50 we have to call first. Now I agree, it's a fold.
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