Stop And Go Day 2 Hand

[mdwexford]

1000 Euro Freezeout

Day 2, blinds 800-1600. i have only been moved to this table about 2 orbits ago and have doubled up since i got there. average stack is 45k, 33 players left.
i open with 10-10 to 4400 from EP (playing 25k), Villain re-pops to 12k (playing 35k). i figure his range here could be 7-7+, A-K, A-Q.
if i push here im getting called by an overpair or A-K, A-Q and i dont want to race so i decide on a stop and go. so if he has overcards and misses the flop he will fold to my bet and even if he has J-J or Q-Q he could fold on an A-K-rag flop as me cold calling his raise oop looks strong. this is obviously bad if it lets him get away from a smaller pair that he would have called a shove with preflop. so i call the 12k and shove my remaining 13k on the flop. opinions please??

[curtains]

What position is the villain? Also are their antes and what are they? These are important because the size of the ante should theoretically have some effect on your opening raise and thus your perceived opening range, and thus have some effect on his reraising range.

Also he is almost never folding to any flop bet if he's any good, especially for only 13k. So the difference between the two plays is negligible for anyone but a terrible villain.

In any case I'd probably just go allin IF I wanted to continue with the hand.

[nairb09]

He should almost never fold to your flop shove getting 3:1 on the call after re-raising pre. You need to shove pre if you want to continue with the hand. Tough spot, but if the table is decent I'd say fold because you're way more likely to be domnating than being ahead, and most of the times you're ahead, you're flipping.

[mdwexford]

the villain is directly to my left. there are no antes in the tournament at all. the villain will still have 23k behind which is enough to fold if he misses the flop or is scared of the flop imo

[Foucault]

I don't like your range for Villain at all. An UTG+ reraise of an UTG raise is an extraordinarily strong play. Do you have reason to think he's particularly aggressive, or to think that he expects you to be on an especially wide range here. It's also relevant that he's putting in 1/3 of his stack preflop and likely committing himself to an all in from you (the UTG raiser) or anyone behind him who wakes up with a hand. Frankly I'd be shocked to see 77 here. JJ+ and AQ+ is what I'd put him on, and that makes TT a fold. If you're going to proceed with it, I guess call and flop shove makes sense, not because it looks strong, but because you're right that he's never folding preflop but might make a bad fold on the flop. The fact that he's never folding flop if he's any good, as others have pointed out, is the reason for a play like this. If he's not any good, he might make a mistake that he wouldn't make if you shove pre.

OP, I don't get your reasoning that with 23K behind he has room to fold flop. You are shoving 13K, not his full 23K.

[mdwexford]

i said early position in my OP im in about 2-3 position not utg sorry for any confusion. he is a very good aggresive player so i figure he re-pops pretty light there.

i know im shoving for 13k but im saying he has put in 12k preflop, if he misses the flop he has 23k behind which is an m of 10 so hes not pot commited to call imo if he doesnt like the flop

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
i said early position in my OP im in about 2-3 position not utg sorry for any confusion. he is a very good aggresive player so i figure he re-pops pretty light there.

i know im shoving for 13k but im saying he has put in 12k preflop, if he misses the flop he has 23k behind which is an m of 10 so hes not pot commited to call imo if he doesnt like the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad on the position. Him being pot committed isn't about the size of his stack, it's about the size of your bet relative to the pot. Your bet offers him very good odds such that he shouldn't fold anything on the flop, not even AQ or AK on a whiffed flop. Maybe he will anyway, which is cool, but you aren't really thinking about it in the right way.

[mdwexford]

i realise hes getting 3/1 but surely if he thinks hes beaten he will conserve his chips for a better spot. if he calls my 13k flop bet with A-Q on a rag board and i have K-K or Q-Q hes crippled down to 10k and in big trouble rather than muck his hand on the flop with 23k left no

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
i realise hes getting 3/1 but surely if he thinks hes beaten he will conserve his chips for a better spot. if he calls my 13k flop bet with A-Q on a rag board and i have K-K or Q-Q hes crippled down to 10k and in big trouble rather than muck his hand on the flop with 23k left no

[/ QUOTE ]


I would fold 0% of flops in basically all situations in his spot, assuming you tried some stop+go. There is maybe like 1-2% of flops that I'd fold, like if it comes 987 all hearts and I have AQo no heart.