bellagio 10-20 700bb deep: 2nd-nut boat facing 4-bet

[mikech]

earlier this afternoon: i'm stuck huge, so i've been raising pf a lot trying to build pots. villain in the hand bought in for about 3k and has run it up to over 14k (i have right around the same, maybe i cover by a bit) by hitting some monster hands. he limp-calls everything preflop, but seems to play pretty decent postflop: he bets strong with his big hands, has been getting paid off and has generally shown down the goods.

anyway, he limps in early, i raise from the hijack to 120 with Js7s, bb calls and villain calls. i flop the stone nuts: Jd Jh 7d.

they check to me, i bet about half-pot, 180. bb folds, villain calls. turn is an os 8. he checks, i bet 340, he throws in a 1k chip while saying, "raise." i think for a bit and reraise 1500 more.

he asks me how much i have behind, i tell him about 11 or 12k more. he starts counting his stack of bills, but doesn't stop at 15: he counts out 50 bills, puts them into the pot and says, "five thousand."

he has about 7 or 8k remaining after his 4bet of 3500 more. what's my play here?

[whorasaurus]

fold, and then quit poker for life.

[whorasaurus]

i mean srsly, i just got home and this post made my head explode.

[AAismyfriend]

I think this is 77/88 almost always, so I would just call and trap him here I think, with plans on snap calling his river shove.

[Havok]

OMG Are you serious? Easiest push ever. If he has ace Jack here and sucks out on the river, Oh well. No way I'm ever folding this. You have a dream flop with the board dominated. He could also have 77 which you crush. Is this a serious post?

call and snapcall river, or just shove, either one is fine. there really is no river i am ever folding to either. this looks like a BBV post under the "brag" section

[aislephive]

Yeah honestly I don't get this post, and I try to not be naive when respected players post hands like this, but I don't see how you can make a reasonable case for anything but shoving. 77/88 alone have to make up a lot of his range, let alone some Jx hands he could have that he thinks are the nuts, specifically AJ. He could have turned his gutshot with a flopped flush draw.

Just did this on pokerstove, which is including no possibilites of a straight or trips, just boats.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

396 games 0.005 secs 79,200 games/sec

Board: Jd 7d Jh 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.556% 43.69% 11.87% 173 47.00 { Js7s }
Hand 1: 44.444% 32.58% 11.87% 129 47.00 { 88-77, J8s-J7s, J8o-J7o }

J8 is the only hand that beats you if I am reading this correctly. is he loose enough to limp-call in EP with J8o? idk, that's really bad. J8s is bad too obv but a lot more likely which limits him to fewer combinations of this.

clearly get the money in and if he shows you that hand, just go vinny vihn status for a week or two and you'll be back to winning poker as soon as you return

[DJ Sensei]

call and get it in on river. i dont want him having any chance to get away from second best hands, and there arent really scare cards so you can take your time.

[Dale Dough]

I don't think it's as clear-cut as everyone seems to be saying; who the [censored] plays AJ or 77 like this? On the flop, if I were him I would be like 'I'll try to build a pot now, because the hand that's most likely to pay me off is a (weaker) jack. If any eight or higher comes off, either he improves his hand to beat me, or he has one more hand to worry about and is less likely to give me action'. J8 OTOH seems like a go for pot control on the flop type of hand.

Of course, he could have eights as well, and/or just be retarded (I didn't / don't know exactly how to do the math, but even eights probably is an iffy four-bet). Assuming of course you didn't have an extensive bluffing history vs. each other.

Rereading the OP 'bets strong with big hands' only enforces the notion in my mind that he should have been more aggro on the flop with hands that you beat.

In the end, though, I'd probably still push and hope he has 88 and thinks you got married to your AJ. I think the quicker the pace of your little raising war, the better for you. I mean I'm sure he's no dummy but you did say he limp-calls every hand. As you know it's 50-50, so the only assumption you need is that he'd play 88 this way. It would definitely help if you've seen him check-call mid pair-ish hands on the flop before, and underestimate the significance of one more raise/reraise.

Whatever you do, you can't just call, though - any 7 or higher is a bad river card for you and the rest doesn't change anything.