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#1
11-16-2007, 09:42 PM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
[ QUOTE ]
There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago. [/ QUOTE ] this is retarded, if you think the fight is 60/40 why would you state that there is big value in +150? 
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#2
11-16-2007, 09:49 PM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago. [/ QUOTE ] this is retarded, if you think the fight is 60/40 why would you state that there is big value in +150? [/ QUOTE ] Without giving any info on what I think of the fight(because I feel confident that I cannot accurately handicapp houston vs Thiago)... last I time I checked, getting 1.5:1 on 1:1 or better yet 3:2 is huge value...
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#3
11-16-2007, 11:19 PM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in
Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly). -P
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#4
11-17-2007, 02:42 AM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
21times20: Why is it that I had no idea what your username meant, but now that I've sparked one, it came to me in a heartbeat? LOL
Quick in-n-out post here... Chonan is dropping a weight class. Karo is incredibly talented. But he gassed out his last 3 fights. I see Chonan losing round one. He gets tossed on his ass, and Karo will ride the round out on top of him... blowing his wad in the process. Karo hence loses 2 and 3. I see this fight as 60/40 Karo tops. More likely 55/45 or even 50/50. +281 at Pinny makes me smile. I think Judo could (should?) be the next big thing in MMA, it adds sooo many options to the clench game. But unless Karo figures out how to hit the "on" button on the treadmill... it won't be him that ushers it in.
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#6
11-17-2007, 03:41 AM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
[ QUOTE ]
BTW... there's been a lot of action against Gono... anyone know what gives? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I predicted BarnCat... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#8
11-17-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
[ QUOTE ]
60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly). -P [/ QUOTE ] I knew where the confusion came from, I just wanted to state it in between the lines for trixtrix. It was obvious trixtrix was criticizing Viscant assuming Viscant thought HA was a 60% fav and still wanted to bet Silva when Viscant was saying Silva is 50-60% likely to win according to his handicapping, which means +150 is HUGE value. Again as in my previous post, it doesn't agree with my handicapping. I have an action bet on HA, but that's all.
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#9
11-17-2007, 03:10 PM
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Re: UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79
[ QUOTE ]
60/40 is a fair line of +/- 150. I think that's where the confusion came in Unless you're saying -- which I think you are -- you think the true line is Houston as a 40% underdog to Silva, in which case you should have approximately 16% of your total bankroll riding on this fight at half-kelly (1/3rd your bankroll at full kelly). -P [/ QUOTE ] While we're on the topic of comments on fights vs actual betting... I will quote @ the end, but your writeup indicates you beleive Spencer Fisher is the favorite in his fight with Edgar...now that he's widely available @ +120 and had blipped as high as +130, shouldn't that be about equal to your bet on alexander? 51% @ +130 is insanely juicy... Frankie Edgar (-135) vs. Spencer Fisher (+105) Frank Edgar is 7-0 in MMA and 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Mark Bocek at UFC 73 and Tyson Griffin at UFC 67. Edgar was a collegiate freestyle All-American wrestler for Clarion University of Pennsylvania. He also formerly held the lightweight championship in the Reality Fighting organization. Edgar is from New Jersey and should certainly have the hometown crowd at his back. Spencer “The King” Fisher holds a fantastic 20-3 MMA record (5-2 UFC) and fights out of the Miletich camp in Davenport, Iowa. Fisher comes into this fight off a unanimous decision victory over Sam Stout at UFC Fight Night 10 back in June. Prior to that win, Fisher lost by TKO to Hermes Franca at UFC Fight Night 8. Fisher has heavy hands, as evidenced by his 11 wins by TKO, but he also sports a solid ground game, ending seven fights by submission via armbars and triangle chokes. This is a close fight, which is reflected by the close line. Fisher holds a significant edge in MMA experience, comes from a better camp, and should generally have better coaching and a better gameplan. Despite that, I’ve been more impressed with Edgar as a fighter. He’s got a stronger base of wrestling to build on, but he hasn’t shown the same striking ability as Fisher. Its very possible that Fisher will want to keep this fight standing where he’ll likely have a significant edge, but he’s also dangerous off his back. It’s not a situation where Edgar can neutralize Fisher’s skills by putting him on his back. I expect this will be the fight of the night. Ultimately I don’t see significant edge from a gambling perspective, but I expect that Spencer Fisher’s edge in striking, coaching and experience will prove too much for Edgar
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