Pot Odds Question

[SycG]

Can you use the DIPO method to determine pots odds/EV in No Limit Hold'em? I read in a limit book that you can use the equation where you take the Estimated Pot Size (ESP) in the term of big bets and multiply that by the number of outs you have and compare it to the number of non-outs to determine if calling is the right play.

The equation then is ESP x outs compared to non-outs.

So on the turn if there are 9 big bets in the pot, you believe you have 7 outs to win the hand which would leave you with 39 non-outs (46 unknown minus 7 outs), then calling would be a good idea because 9 x 7 is 63 which is more than 39.

If not, can someone please help me figure out how to calculate EV at the table to help me make better decisions on my play. I would really appreciate it.

[greggg230]

First of all, there's no such thing as a big bet in NLHE - you could count the pot in terms of big blinds, but that's more or less useless, unless people are min-betting.

That equation is based on the assumption that you'll be calling one big bet to win a pot of 9 big bets. In other words, you're 39:7 ~= 5.5:1 shot and you're being laid 9:1 odds from the pot, so it's an easy call with 7 outs on the turn. That method is just a simplification which is made possible by the fixed limit betting structure. So, it really can't be used in NLHE.

I think everyone goes about it different ways, but the way I calculate odds is just using percentages. If I'm getting 3:1 on my money I know that, in order to break even, I need to win 1/4rd of the time. If I'm on the turn, that means I need to have about 12 outs to justify my call based on immediate pot odds alone. Keep in mind that NLHE is a game that is often more concerned with implied odds than pot odds, which is a big difference from limit. Since you didn't ask about implied odds, I won't go into that here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SycG]

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First of all, there's no such thing as a big bet in NLHE - you could count the pot in terms of big blinds, but that's more or less useless, unless people are min-betting.

That equation is based on the assumption that you'll be calling one big bet to win a pot of 9 big bets. In other words, you're 39:7 ~= 5.5:1 shot and you're being laid 9:1 odds from the pot, so it's an easy call with 7 outs on the turn. That method is just a simplification which is made possible by the fixed limit betting structure. So, it really can't be used in NLHE.

I think everyone goes about it different ways, but the way I calculate odds is just using percentages. If I'm getting 3:1 on my money I know that, in order to break even, I need to win 1/4rd of the time. If I'm on the turn, that means I need to have about 12 outs to justify my call based on immediate pot odds alone. Keep in mind that NLHE is a game that is often more concerned with implied odds than pot odds, which is a big difference from limit. Since you didn't ask about implied odds, I won't go into that here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Please explain more

[jay_shark]

1 Big bet = 2 big blinds .

Which is often used in limit hold em , since you need to call one big bet if you wish to continue past the flop .

[SycG]

How do you convert your outs to odds. Lets say I have 7 outs on the turn and I am getting 4:1 pot odds. There are 46 unknown cards, it six handed (i don't know if that matters). How would I go about doing this.

[jay_shark]

There are 46 unknown cards and you have 7 outs .

(46-7):7 = 39:7 ~ 5.57:1 . If you had 0 implied odds then you should fold . Obviously you don't have 0 implied odds when you hit . This means it's probably a good idea you call since your implied odds makes up for it .

ie , if the pot contains $4 and you need to call an additional $ but you expect to always win $2 on the river when you hit , then you're getting 6:1 on your call . Lets assume you always win when you hit .

EV = 7/46*6 -39/46*1 = 0.06521 >0 so a call is good idea .

[greggg230]

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[ QUOTE ]
First of all, there's no such thing as a big bet in NLHE - you could count the pot in terms of big blinds, but that's more or less useless, unless people are min-betting.

That equation is based on the assumption that you'll be calling one big bet to win a pot of 9 big bets. In other words, you're 39:7 ~= 5.5:1 shot and you're being laid 9:1 odds from the pot, so it's an easy call with 7 outs on the turn. That method is just a simplification which is made possible by the fixed limit betting structure. So, it really can't be used in NLHE.

I think everyone goes about it different ways, but the way I calculate odds is just using percentages. If I'm getting 3:1 on my money I know that, in order to break even, I need to win 1/4rd of the time. If I'm on the turn, that means I need to have about 12 outs to justify my call based on immediate pot odds alone. Keep in mind that NLHE is a game that is often more concerned with implied odds than pot odds, which is a big difference from limit. Since you didn't ask about implied odds, I won't go into that here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Please explain more

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What in particular?

The basic idea is that the ratio of the bet you need to call to the pot should be smaller than the ratio of the number of outs you have to the number of cards that won't help you.

So, say you're on the turn with an open-ended straight draw and you'll have the nuts if you hit (no flush draw). So, you have 8 outs.

Now, the pot is $100 on the turn and someone makes a bet of $50. The pot is now $150 and you have to call $50. So you're being laid 150:50 or 3:1 on your call.

Now, what are the odds of making your hand? There are 8 cards in the deck which will make your hand out of 46 unseen cards. So, the odds are 38:8 or about 5:1 against you. So, based on immediate pot odds alone, you can't call here.

However, say you put your opponent a strong hand that he'll likely call a sizable bet with on the river if you do make your hand - such as a set. If you call his bet, the pot will be $200, and so a reasonable sized bet would be $150 (which he'll almost certainly called with such a strong hand). So, if you make your hand, you stand to make what's in the pot ($150) plus a river bet ($150). So, you're really calling $50 to make $300 and your implied odds are 300:50 or 6:1. You only need 5:1, so you should call here.