NL200 - flop a combo draw

[bilbo-san]

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This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ / dumbplayed AA/KK, AJ, QJ, KJ. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.

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Of course I have reason to believe that. He's 20/13. Guys like this 3-bet QQ+, and don't tend to raise QJ or KJ or some other [censored] on a flop like this. In fact, if he has no set, his most likely hand is something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9/T/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that destroys us, and LOL that ain't foldin'.

Dunno how many times I gotta say this. You can pretend "Oh, but he might be the ONE stupid 20/13 guy that doesn't do this" or "Oh but maybe just this ONE time he decided not to 3-bet AA", but you are just basically looking for excuses to play this "big draw" the way the rest of SSNL always does in these posts, which is "ZOMG BIG DRAW DON'T NEED TO READ HANDS JUST PUSH!"

[Jay Riall]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.331% 41.33% 00.00% 23323 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 58.669% 58.67% 00.00% 33107 0.00 { JJ+, 66, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As3s, KJs, AJo, KJo }

[Jay Riall]

Oops my bad thought he was open raiser. Wow, shoving sucks even harder then since there aren't really any overpair in his range.

[Jay Riall]

Lol you can ignore all my previous advice now, leading flop is obviously standard, but I'd fold to the raise. Man, this guy has a set or bigger flushdraw like 80% of the time.

[Dire]

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This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ / dumbplayed AA/KK, AJ, QJ, KJ. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.

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Of course I have reason to believe that. He's 20/13. Guys like this 3-bet QQ+, and don't tend to raise QJ or KJ or some other [censored] on a flop like this. In fact, if he has no set, his most likely hand is something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9/T/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that destroys us, and LOL that ain't foldin'.

Dunno how many times I gotta say this. You can pretend "Oh, but he might be the ONE stupid 20/13 guy that doesn't do this" or "Oh but maybe just this ONE time he decided not to 3-bet AA", but you are just basically looking for excuses to play this "big draw" the way the rest of SSNL always does in these posts, which is "ZOMG BIG DRAW DON'T NEED TO READ HANDS JUST PUSH!"

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In fact, you are the one doing what seems to be a common 'SSNL thing'. You are using his 20/13 to determine how he will act postflop. This is incorrect. We have a read that he has been rather aggressive particularly on the flop. This is admittedly over a small sample, but it's all we have to go on. And any postflop read is much better than trying to magically extrapolate his likely postflop actions based on preflop numbers.

The postflop read makes it extremely likely that he raises AJ/KJ/QJ/etc on this flop. Hell, he sees a flush draw. He's "protecting" his hand in his mind.

[bilbo-san]

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This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ / dumbplayed AA/KK, AJ, QJ, KJ. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.

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Of course I have reason to believe that. He's 20/13. Guys like this 3-bet QQ+, and don't tend to raise QJ or KJ or some other [censored] on a flop like this. In fact, if he has no set, his most likely hand is something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9/T/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that destroys us, and LOL that ain't foldin'.

Dunno how many times I gotta say this. You can pretend "Oh, but he might be the ONE stupid 20/13 guy that doesn't do this" or "Oh but maybe just this ONE time he decided not to 3-bet AA", but you are just basically looking for excuses to play this "big draw" the way the rest of SSNL always does in these posts, which is "ZOMG BIG DRAW DON'T NEED TO READ HANDS JUST PUSH!"

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In fact, you are the one doing what seems to be a common 'SSNL thing'. You are using his 20/13 to determine how he will act postflop. This is incorrect. We have a read that he has been rather aggressive particularly on the flop. This is admittedly over a small sample, but it's all we have to go on. And any postflop read is much better than trying to magically extrapolate his likely postflop actions based on preflop numbers.

The postflop read makes it extremely likely that he raises AJ/KJ/QJ/etc on this flop. Hell, he sees a flush draw. He's "protecting" his hand in his mind.

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You are putting him on a very narrow (and optimistic, from your point of view) based on a small sample size, which in itself is a BIASED sample, because it consists mostly of his c-bets in pots that he raised (if you measured only those pots, the average SSNL'er probably has an AF between 8 and infinity). Your "read" is also based on a very specific set of intentions that villain MUST have in order for us to push profitably.

I, on the other hand, am putting him on a narrow hand range based on how the "typical" 20/13 acts.

Go conduct a seance. See which one of us Thomas Bayes agrees with as using statistical evidence from a small sample size correctly.

[Dire]

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This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ / dumbplayed AA/KK, AJ, QJ, KJ. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.

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Of course I have reason to believe that. He's 20/13. Guys like this 3-bet QQ+, and don't tend to raise QJ or KJ or some other [censored] on a flop like this. In fact, if he has no set, his most likely hand is something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9/T/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that destroys us, and LOL that ain't foldin'.

Dunno how many times I gotta say this. You can pretend "Oh, but he might be the ONE stupid 20/13 guy that doesn't do this" or "Oh but maybe just this ONE time he decided not to 3-bet AA", but you are just basically looking for excuses to play this "big draw" the way the rest of SSNL always does in these posts, which is "ZOMG BIG DRAW DON'T NEED TO READ HANDS JUST PUSH!"

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In fact, you are the one doing what seems to be a common 'SSNL thing'. You are using his 20/13 to determine how he will act postflop. This is incorrect. We have a read that he has been rather aggressive particularly on the flop. This is admittedly over a small sample, but it's all we have to go on. And any postflop read is much better than trying to magically extrapolate his likely postflop actions based on preflop numbers.

The postflop read makes it extremely likely that he raises AJ/KJ/QJ/etc on this flop. Hell, he sees a flush draw. He's "protecting" his hand in his mind.

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You are putting him on a very narrow (and optimistic, from your point of view) based on a small sample size, which in itself is a BIASED sample, because it consists mostly of his c-bets in pots that he raised (if you measured only those pots, the average SSNL'er probably has an AF between 8 and infinity). Your "read" is also based on a very specific set of intentions that villain MUST have in order for us to push profitably.

I, on the other hand, am putting him on a narrow hand range based on how the "typical" 20/13 acts.

Go conduct a seance. See which one of us Thomas Bayes agrees with as using statistical evidence from a small sample size correctly.

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Ummm... again making odd assumptions. A 20/13 is not grinding out the small pots in late position (inflating his flop aggression numbers), or he wouldn't be 20/13! A 13% raise means this guy is most likely not even positionally aware, and there's a reasonable chance he doesn't give a ton of value to the initiative. Of course, now I'm the one starting pull magical extrapolations from my arse. This would be something the OP should have taken note of - but of course all he gives is PT numbers.

[Dire]

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This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ / dumbplayed AA/KK, AJ, QJ, KJ. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.

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Of course I have reason to believe that. He's 20/13. Guys like this 3-bet QQ+, and don't tend to raise QJ or KJ or some other [censored] on a flop like this. In fact, if he has no set, his most likely hand is something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9/T/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and that destroys us, and LOL that ain't foldin'.

Dunno how many times I gotta say this. You can pretend "Oh, but he might be the ONE stupid 20/13 guy that doesn't do this" or "Oh but maybe just this ONE time he decided not to 3-bet AA", but you are just basically looking for excuses to play this "big draw" the way the rest of SSNL always does in these posts, which is "ZOMG BIG DRAW DON'T NEED TO READ HANDS JUST PUSH!"

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In fact, you are the one doing what seems to be a common 'SSNL thing'. You are using his 20/13 to determine how he will act postflop. This is incorrect. We have a read that he has been rather aggressive particularly on the flop. This is admittedly over a small sample, but it's all we have to go on. And any postflop read is much better than trying to magically extrapolate his likely postflop actions based on preflop numbers.

The postflop read makes it extremely likely that he raises AJ/KJ/QJ/etc on this flop. Hell, he sees a flush draw. He's "protecting" his hand in his mind.

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You are putting him on a very narrow (and optimistic, from your point of view) based on a small sample size, which in itself is a BIASED sample, because it consists mostly of his c-bets in pots that he raised (if you measured only those pots, the average SSNL'er probably has an AF between 8 and infinity). Your "read" is also based on a very specific set of intentions that villain MUST have in order for us to push profitably.

I, on the other hand, am putting him on a narrow hand range based on how the "typical" 20/13 acts.

Go conduct a seance. See which one of us Thomas Bayes agrees with as using statistical evidence from a small sample size correctly.

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And what I find even more unusual about your comment is that you claim I'm putting him on a narrow range when you procede to put him on exactly a set or one of the 3 exact hand combinations that kills us.

Anyhow, not going to turn this into another 12 page debate. Need put in my $0.02 and check out. Good luck.

[bilbo-san]

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And what I find even more unusual about your comment is that you claim I'm putting him on a narrow range when you procede to put him on exactly a set or one of the 3 exact hand combinations that kills us.


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Yes, that's his CALLING range. Not his actual range.

That means that he has to have a range other than his calling range 40% of the time for us to push profitably.

So you say his calling range is wider. Fine. But if that's the case he folds less. And includes more hands that crush is.

If he calls with QJ, he sure as [censored] calls with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Now, name a calling range that is good for us AND where we have enough FE. A "smidge" of FE isn't enough.

[schwza]

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A ruff idea of your equity against his calling range.

Hand 0: 37.899% 37.90% 00.00% 9380 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 62.101% 62.10% 00.00% 15370 0.00 { 66, 22, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, AJo }

Lets assume we are a 2 to 1 dog when called.

GRUNCH METHOD

+266 -210 -210 +90 +90

We need villain to fold roughly 40% of the time for this to be 0EV.

That number seems to be unrealistic since villain has a monster most of the time here. Therefor I fold like a little girl.

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can you explain the math here? i can do it slowly with excel, but i'd like to see this fancy grunch method.