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#1
11-27-2007, 02:28 AM
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Re: Three barrels?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] sample size on stats? [/ QUOTE ] About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low. [/ QUOTE ] you can't base a read on WTSD numbers with only 250 hands. It's so much more likely that this guy was a reasonable WTSD (35-40) and has been running terribly over the sample you have on him rather than truly being a folder. 
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#2
11-27-2007, 02:34 AM
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Re: Three barrels?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] sample size on stats? [/ QUOTE ] About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low. [/ QUOTE ] you can't base a read on WTSD numbers with only 250 hands. It's so much more likely that this guy was a reasonable WTSD (35-40) and has been running terribly over the sample you have on him rather than truly being a folder. [/ QUOTE ] If that was true, wouldn't the WTSD number be about the same, and the W$SD be low? Point taken tho, I should probably look into what the PT stats mean individually.
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#3
11-27-2007, 02:49 AM
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Re: Three barrels?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] sample size on stats? [/ QUOTE ] About 250 hands. Villain's VPIP/PFR numbers were in the usual lagtag range along with aggression, but the WTSD was ridiculously low. [/ QUOTE ] you can't base a read on WTSD numbers with only 250 hands. It's so much more likely that this guy was a reasonable WTSD (35-40) and has been running terribly over the sample you have on him rather than truly being a folder. [/ QUOTE ] If that was true, wouldn't the WTSD number be about the same, and the W$SD be low? Point taken tho, I should probably look into what the PT stats mean individually. [/ QUOTE ] What happens when a lot of the broadway hands you play never hit a pair?
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#5
11-27-2007, 07:08 AM
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Re: Three barrels?
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise???
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#6
11-27-2007, 07:18 AM
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Re: Three barrels?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise??? [/ QUOTE ] Indeed. There are two reasons to raise the flop, FE or taking a free card. This flop hits a 3-betting range pretty hard. A lot of the time you'll get called down, and a lot of the time you'll get reraised forcing you to pay the max for your draw. You have very little FE and the risk of getting 3-bet is high which makes a free card play too risky. Free card plays are seldom worth it HU anyways. On top of that you don't know how many of your outs are good. K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] could be bad for you and half your outs could be drawing to a split. Just call and hope you hit.
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#7
11-27-2007, 09:30 AM
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Re: Three barrels?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the flop raise is bad. What do you think he three bets preflop that he might fold to the flop raise??? [/ QUOTE ] Flop raise cant be bad. Come on 22, 33, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 will all fold a good portion of the time Thats 45 combos!! With the OESD and possible pair outs vs KJ and KT Hero doesnt need to get a fold very often for it to be +EV. Pot is 8 SB when villain bets and hero would be calling anyway so make that 10 SB that he is paying 1 more bet to win. Of course villain will make it 3 or force hero to bet again on the turn but still. I'd guess that if villain folds as little as 10% here then the semibluff raise is good. With all those combos of low pp's that should be more than feasible I'd say that not raising this flop is bad.
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