Ric Flair says Whooooooooooo

[Briman51]

I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.72-0.1*47.5 = $38.95

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the marginal(ish) using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis. Picking the figures more logically would be useful. Any thoughts?

[lowpockets]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the river here is really interesting. Assume you're bluff will be about 1/2 pot size.

I think his range is about 10% hands with tens: ATs,TT,JTo,JTs etc.

Without any information it's really hard to guess how often he'll fold his nothing here, but I'd say not many people lay down here maybe 10%.

So you lose 10% of the time, you split 72% of the time (0.9*0.8=0.72), and you win 10% of the time.

Therefore, you're expectation from the bet should be:

0.1*95+0.5*95*0.8-0.1*47.5 = $42.75

You're expectation when not betting is:

0.9*47.5=$42.75

So the Expexctation is the same using these figures. I thought this was quite interesting analysis espcially as I didn't pick the numbers specifically to make them turn out equal. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

2 things - he has a ten more than 10% of the time AND you aren't taking into account that when he bets half pot as you said, he is getting repopped MORE than the percent of times his opponent has a 10. This might sound counter intuitive, but I have seen stupid [censored] like this before when some idiot thinks its going to be a split.

[CptnObvius]

perfect as played assuming u check riv behind...

[wuwei]

I don't see any reason to bet that flop. I'd much rather check it and call a lot of turn bets.

River, bleh, I just check. I have such bad luck trying to push guys off a chop, and this doesn't seem like a great spot for it. If he's thinking at all, this is a hard spot to represent a T.

[Requin]

I'll check flop against a good aggro player, otherwise I usually just cbet, I don't think there's that big a difference though (against an unknown). Check river.

[terp]

hand looks good

super easy check now

[Don Key E37]

How quick did he check river? People with a 10 seem to think a bit before they check. I could see betting if he insta checked, like 50 or something that looked like it wanted a call