Set Mining Math

[subs]

Assuming 100BB stacks for both the hero and the villain, at what size 3-bet does it become -EV to set mine... we will assume you standard preflop raise to 4x BB preflop with no limpers in front of you and no callers behind and then the villain 3-bets you... lets also assume this is a decent player (well go with 20/15)

Does position in this situation matter at all? Like say he 3 bets you from the button as opposed to from the blinds... would this have any bearing? I figure he will CBet you from the blinds nearly every time so it will be easier to extract money from him when you do hit your set, but if you are first to act, it is harder to stack him off (at least in my experience)

[kolotoure]

There is a post in the ssnl sticky by dbitel iirc

[hallo!]

Pls tell here if you know [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[runfor1]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...419&page=0

[z28dreams]

I think this is a big leak that a lot of players do.

Example for 25nl:

You raise to $.85 w/ 66
Villain (25/10) reraises to $2.5 or so

You should probably fold.

Villain's remaining stack is only around 10x this bet.

Given that you only flop a set around 1/8 times, and it won't always win, even if he stacks off 100% of the time you hit you're probably barely breakeven.

In short, I'd probably call a min-raise preflop, but not a whole lot bigger. Also, if there's multi-way action this also changes things considerably.

For example:

You raise
MP re-raises (pot)
BTN calls
I typically call here, assuming everyone has ~ 100bb

[RobTheDuck]

lol at your title z28

[DBG]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a big leak that a lot of players do.

Example for 25nl:

You raise to $.85 w/ 66
Villain (25/10) reraises to $2.5 or so

You should probably fold.

Villain's remaining stack is only around 10x this bet.

Given that you only flop a set around 1/8 times, and it won't always win, even if he stacks off 100% of the time you hit you're probably barely breakeven.

In short, I'd probably call a min-raise preflop, but not a whole lot bigger. Also, if there's multi-way action this also changes things considerably.

For example:

You raise
MP re-raises (pot)
BTN calls
I typically call here, assuming everyone has ~ 100bb

[/ QUOTE ]
I was wondering about this myself. I think I just found a huge leak. Thanks doods.

[hallo!]

are you serious? DAMN I HAVE BEEN WASTING MONEY!!!!

So to get this straight

my standard Raise without limpers is 1 $ (NL25). So any good player will at least raise to 3,x $

I should always fold then (assuming 100BB)? What pairs would you still play (88+?)

Heads Up, how many BBs do we need in effective stacks to call a raise like above?

thx

[JackKingOff]

So, at 25NL if we raise to $1 (4BB) and get reraised to $3 (12BB) based on dbitel's post, we need effective stacks of about 140BB ($35 at 25NL) remaining to make the call, right?

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a big leak that a lot of players do.

Example for 25nl:

You raise to $.85 w/ 66
Villain (25/10) reraises to $2.5 or so

You should probably fold.

Villain's remaining stack is only around 10x this bet.

Given that you only flop a set around 1/8 times, and it won't always win, even if he stacks off 100% of the time you hit you're probably barely breakeven.

In short, I'd probably call a min-raise preflop, but not a whole lot bigger. Also, if there's multi-way action this also changes things considerably.

For example:

You raise
MP re-raises (pot)
BTN calls
I typically call here, assuming everyone has ~ 100bb

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.. pretty standard on both..

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $26.60
SB: $36.95
BB: $52.55
UTG: $42.10
Hero (MP): $52.20
CO: $55.10

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $5.50</font>, BTN calls $5.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.75

-----[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-----[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $50.10
Hero (CO): $60.30
BTN: $50
SB: $78.90
BB: $42.30
UTG: $16.65

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BB raises to $5.50</font>, Hero folds

Results: $3.75 Pot
BB mucked and WON $3.75 (+$2 NET)

Where should we be drawing the line though? It's easy enough to put him on a range and see mathematically what makes sense (ie +EV vs his range), but we're looking at a super early commitment threshold and a bunch of scary flops quite often.

So where do we defend here? 88+? 99+? bigger?

For use to call here, we need to have a strong enough hand to stack up vs his range and we are not calling for set-value.

Villians 3bet range is very key here.

with 66 even against a light 3-bettor, we are in bad shape.

Hand 0: 59.586% 59.37% 00.22% 31114867 115064.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.414% 40.19% 00.22% 21066447 115064.00 { 66 }

So we got to draw the line somewhere right? Let's give hero TT.
Very light 3-bettor:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.372% 47.62% 01.76% 13660024 503683.00 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 50.628% 48.87% 01.76% 14020242 503683.00 { TT }

We're flipping here and the pot is already padded a bit due to our first raise, but flops are still gonna be scary more often than not.

Villain not as light w/ 3bets.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.965% 52.42% 02.54% 41629024 2019782.50 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 45.035% 42.49% 02.54% 33743814 2019782.50 { TT }

It's already starting to go south for our hero.

Reasonably tight 3-bet villain:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.320% 56.39% 02.93% 20505867 1064175.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 40.680% 37.75% 02.93% 13727734 1064175.00 { TT }

Tighter yet...
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.885% 59.68% 00.20% 19143560 64310.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 40.115% 39.91% 00.20% 12802659 64310.00 { TT }