NL25 How to play this draw

[Mr_Pathetic]

I ran stove on what I believe to be his range and I come up wiht 30% for me.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.274% 32.38% 02.89% 13464 1203.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 64.726% 61.83% 02.89% 25710 1203.00 { 77+, QJs, QJo }

This is the more likely range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.173% 24.90% 03.27% 8874 1167.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 71.827% 68.55% 03.27% 24432 1167.00 { 88+, QJs, QJo }

Edit: I included QJ but I really think he has some sort of PP here most of the time which is why I felt like an idiot after betting this flop.

[mackthefork]

Well I call the push there because as you said he's pretty tight preflop, he probably made a mistake in calling your 3 bet if he does have a set, and if he has 88+ you are still only a 2-1 dog.

Mack

[members_only]

Not betting this flop strikes me as crazy. And once you've bet it you have to call a crai

[mackthefork]

Personally I think given his read he bet too much on the flop, as he beats nothing, but at least it's made the call automatic.

Regards Mack

[members_only]

His read that villain called with a pp? And must automatically have hit a set??? Or is capable of flatting QQ+ twice?

[Lostit]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran stove on what I believe to be his range and I come up wiht 30% for me.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.274% 32.38% 02.89% 13464 1203.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 64.726% 61.83% 02.89% 25710 1203.00 { 77+, QJs, QJo }

This is the more likely range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.173% 24.90% 03.27% 8874 1167.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 71.827% 68.55% 03.27% 24432 1167.00 { 88+, QJs, QJo }

Edit: I included QJ but I really think he has some sort of PP here most of the time which is why I felt like an idiot after betting this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the numbers in either one of these ranges. You need to be better than 38% ($15 to win $40)to call, and neither one is.

Also, if he has a pocket pair and hit a set, then you've got 10 outs, or %40 pct. So best case, you're break even on the call, worst case you're serious -EV (QJ).

The numbers tell the tale clearly, as played, this is a fold.

[Nick Royale]

Incredibly standard call.