Then this to end my night....

[The Worm]

These next few hands are my last 2 months in a nutshell. No joke, I bleeded about 300 BBs and these next few hands are exactly the hands I am losing with. Can I do anything different? Is it variance or is variance a myth? I had a run a couple weeks ago where I kept track of my 7th street losses, 4 outers only. 2 sessions one day was 60 BBs. Should I just take a break, and think I played well, oh well it happens? or should I keep plugging away? re-read 7CSFAP?

I was a winning player at other sites, but cant crack this site. Just this one site.



7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (3.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.60 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (4.60 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

River - (6.60 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx___raises $7.50 to $17.50 and is all-in
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

Total pot: (10.10 BB)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $101 | Rake $3

Seat 1: [6s 9s Js 7s 8s Ac 5d] (a flush, Jack high)

</font>



7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (4.20 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets___calls

5th Street - (5.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (7.10 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls $6 and is all-in

River - (8.70 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx
Hero: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___all-in

Total pot: (8.70 BB)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $83 | Rake $3

Seat 1: [Jh 7s Jc 7d 9s 7h 6h] (a full house, Sevens full of Jacks)

</font>

Then I played this hand like a donkey, when he 3 bet my first reaction is rolled 6s. But I was on tilt and got carried away, is it possible to fold this at any point on 3rd or 4th,? Im pretty sure I should have.



7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.80 SB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises___raises
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls___raises___calls

4th Street - (8.10 SB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (5.05 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (7.05 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___raises

River - (11.05 BB)

Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets

Total pot: (13.05 BB)

Results (in white):<font color="white">

Total pot $261 | Rake $3

Hero: [Ks Kh As 4c Qc 2s 5c]

Seat 8: [6s 6h 6c Qs 2d Ah 9h] (three of a kind, Sixes)

</font>

[Andy B]

The first two hands strike me as pretty routine. I wouldn't fold the third hand unless I had a really strong read (I never have strong reads). When he check-raises sixth, though, it sure looks like you're toast. The river call is pretty hopeless.

[Wahoo73]

As far as these three hands are concerned, in the first two you are just a victim of bad timing; in the third hand, I'd have taken the free card on 6th street and folded to a bet on the river.

Regardless, your post isn't really about these three hands. Instead, it's about going through an extended slump. Rather than pretend I have any solutions or new suggestions, I recommend you take a look at several threads that were posted here a few months ago on this same topic, especially this one (in which you even offered advice):

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rt=all&amp;vc=1

Perhaps you should follow your own advice ("walk away") and take a break from stud. Or post this in the BBV Forum, where you will probably be derided and insulted to the point of humiliation so that you won't want to play poker ever again. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I was a winning player at other sites, but cant crack this site. Just this one site.

[/ QUOTE ]

As an aside, which site is this? Oddly enough, I have experienced the same phenomenon playing stud on-line at six different sites during the last three years. The only one I can't seem to win at is Poker Stars, where I have just been a break-even player.

[Brad1970]

The first 2 hands are pretty standard for stud. You aren't anymore unlucky than anybody else in this situation.

The 3rd hand, you should have been able to get away from the K's. When he limp/raised you, alarm bells should have been going off in your head. Obviously, he's not scared of your Ace in the door. He's either rolled, has pocket A's, or is a complete idiot. Then, to top it off, he checkraised you on 6th when he caught an Ace. His actions screamed big hand...

[cgrohman]

uhhhh, looks like he had a monster draw in hand 1. He was probably the favorite.

hand 2, the limp re-raise is scaaaary. When he check raises you on 6th, I fold this pretty quickly.

[The Worm]

So is it Variance or Bad Luck, or is Variance Bad Luck, or just an excuse?

[lstream]

Worm,

I hear ya. I have made excellent cash over about 2.5 yrs playing on line. But I am in the middle of an extended (multi month) and brutal downturn - hands like the ones you are seeing are killing me as well. I just cannot seem to break the cycle, since two or three of these second-best hands in a session can pooch the entire night.

Just the other day, I was in a heads up situation - started with pocket queens against a guy with air - just a baby pair. He catches open queens and his takes down the pot. He hit his open queens when I already had queens up. Guys hitting gut shots and smoking my trips or rolled hands. It just never ends.

With that little whine out of the way, I think that the "standard" tight play (that has worked very well for me in the past) that works at many sites will not work at certain sites. The antes and rake will bleed you dry - throw in a few hands like you are seeing and things turn tough fast.

I have come to believe that I need to play more hands with higher implied odds, since you will get paid off when you hit, because these guys are going to chase no matter what you do. So I have taken to expanding my third street range, depending on position, deception if the hand hits, re-draw potential, how much of an overlay I am getting, among others. I am also trying to be very disciplined about letting go early, depending on action and how the earlier streets unfold. All of this is intended to give myself the opportunity to hit more big pots.

Not sure if this is the answer, but at least I will play more hands while I am getting killed [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Brad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
So is it Variance or Bad Luck, or is Variance Bad Luck, or just an excuse?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Worm, that depends on who you ask....To an informed player, its mathematical variance. To the run of the mill casino patron/once in a while poker player, its pure luck. You could almost argue that they are one in the same. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

And you know what they say about excuses!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]