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#1
01-01-2007, 07:52 PM
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$10NL NFD faces flop push
Villain is 63/6/1.2 over 66 hands.
Do I have enough outs against his range to call this push? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($4.20) Hero ($10.65) MP ($16.20) CO ($3.60) Button ($23.50) SB ($26.90) Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, MP calls $0.40, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>. Flop: ($0.95) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.95</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $10.6</font>, Hero ? 
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#2
01-03-2007, 12:19 AM
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Re: $10NL NFD faces flop push
OK, my gut feeling tells me that you have about 12 outs, twice. Villain is representing AK or a set, but could also have a draw. Against a set you've got about 10 effective outs (15 outs to a flush or straight, discounted by 1/3rd for the times that villain redraws to a full house), against a draw you're doing great, against two pair you've got 14ish outs (15 outs discounted slightly for the times that villain redraws to a full house), against a pair you've got 15 or 18 outs, and against AK you've got 3 outs to a push and 9 outs to a win. Against a bluff you're doing fantastically well, but I don't think that's likely at all. If we call it 12 outs on average, we're not far from right. With 12 outs you need 1.22-to-1 odds to call. Here you'll have to call $9.30 to win $11.20, which is 1.2-to-1 odds. You're almost exactly at a break-even position, so without a solid read (and you don't have a solid read) I'd say you can basically flip a coin -- your equity is about the same whether you call or fold.
One last point: a 63/6/1.2 is likely an idiot, and idiots make idiot plays. That would push me towards calling, but I still don't do it gleefully.
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#3
01-03-2007, 12:49 AM
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Re: $10NL NFD faces flop push
Can't argue with Pokey's math, evah.
Usually I see combo draw and I'm looking to get it in. Pot's small enough and I'm calling so I'm inclined to let this one go. Feels like a LAG looking to get a call to me. If I'm playing on FT, I'll do a quick scan through as many hands as possible to get a read to swing this firmly to fold or tip it to a call. Otherwise, makes some notes and move on.
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