Rickjs Handicapping Picks wk of 10/30

riccja · #1 10-31-2007, 11:04 AM

Wedn nba plays

There havnt been any plays for the last few days but today we have our first play of the season in the nba.

Cleveland +3.5

Good Luck

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

Record to date:

NFL (07-08)
Sides 9-5 +3.75
Total
Ncaafb(07-08)
Sides: 11-6-0 +4.70
Totals: 26-9-2 +16.55

NHL (07 Season)
Sides: 1-0 +1.40
totals:

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 71-93 +3.79
O/U: 24-21-1 + 2.40

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

Arena Football
Sides:
Total: 1-0 +1.00

WNBA
Sides: 5-1 +3.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

nhl
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Nba
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July: 45 bets -7.26 units -16.13%
Aug: 37 bets +2.63 units +7.10%
Sept 65 bets +11.29 units +17.37%
Oct: 27 bet +17.15 +63.52%
Year2 27 bet +17.15 +63.52%
Year1 734 Bets + 50.70units +6.91%
Total: 761 bets +67.85 +8.91%

Jazzy3113 · #2 10-31-2007, 11:32 AM

can u give a little more analysis. dallas is a perennial contender in the much more competitve western conference and have had historically very fast starts.

centris · #3 10-31-2007, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
can u give a little more analysis. dallas is a perennial contender in the much more competitve western conference and have had historically very fast starts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rick does not post any analysis because he has none. All the plays are the result of his neural net model. I don't know what the inputs are, but since the same model works for basketball, football and baseball it does not have anything to do with the specific sport.

I think the model often finds value in lines when the public bets a favorite or on over too much. I don't say this to be mean but I think often the public does this with just the type of thinking you are displaying here.

Jazzy3113 · #4 10-31-2007, 12:48 PM

No offense taken.

I did a little research and found that Dallas has had a top 3 nba start (within the first 40 games) the last few years.

They currently have more veterans, are averaging more points per game, and have a higher ranked offense although slightly lower defensive rank.
They have no major injuries.

The cons are that they are on the road. Thats all I have.

So I think there would be value is a larger spread, but three points to a team statistically better doesnt seem to have much value at first glance.

How can he have such a number model that can used against all sports? That being said his results do speak for themselves.

Also, rick, what is your bankroll management. When people say 1u sometimes they have a roll of 50x, 100x, or a few friends have 500+x that said unit. How much do you risk per play?

rjp · #5 10-31-2007, 01:00 PM

The Mavs started 0-4 last season. I'm in no way trying to say that you should use that as a basis for making a wager, but trying to say they "start out fast" isn't exactly correct, either.

This type of subjective betting will make you a long term loser, so be careful.

Jazzy3113 · #6 10-31-2007, 01:03 PM

I put in () i used a larger sample size than just the first 4 games. I used 40.

Also, I think I am slightly improving in subjective betting, but at times I still seem to lean to the "public" favorite.

Since I am new to the NBA I thought going with slight away favs and large home favs would be the best way to start out.

riccja · #7 10-31-2007, 01:09 PM

Centris is correct. My methods attempt to find value in a plays so that over the long run you have a positive expectation.

My assumption is that most everything is already built into the line. The books are quite adept and knowledgeable in keeping current on all factors that will influence a game. There are only a very small percentage of handicappers that have superior abilities to the books.

That being said one thing that the books are very adept at is knowing which way the public will lean on a play. So in order to balance the money and also give the public far worst of it the lines on occasion are off to accommodate the publics perceptions.

That is where I concentrate....finding value that is usually intentionally placed there by the books. My 2 neural net models along with my filters attempt to accomplish this.

Obviously both the nfl and ncaa fb have worked out great. Nhl has very few plays. Nba last season was great the 1st half and a disaster the 2nd half. And overall baseball was about breakeven.

Right or wrong that is how I approach handicapping.

hedgie43 · #8 10-31-2007, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Since I am new to the NBA I thought going with slight away favs and large home favs would be the best way to start out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

internetdonk · #9 10-31-2007, 01:12 PM

I use the heads is the home team / tails isthe visitors team method of selecting NBA games.... Last year I went 0-1 in NBA, hence I keep to football....

Jazzy3113 · #10 10-31-2007, 01:15 PM

Did you create these "neural net" models yourself, or are you simply adjusting the input variables? My quick search shows a ton of different types, but Im assuming you went with standard model and tweaked what you felt were the best inputs and then added your filter.

Do you have any comments on why the NBA 2nd half went south?

.