FD vs minraise from TAG????

[shpanko]

Main villain is a 17/13/3.5 TAG, my image at the table is 32/23 so kind of aggro lol, the other ugy in the hand is a big fish, not sure if main villain knows this or not. What's my play on turn? SHould I have lead it? As played what now?

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $200.55
BB: $160.35
Hero (UTG): $329.40
MP: $21.55
CO: $185.40
BTN: $77

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, MP folds, CO calls $7, 2 folds, BB calls $5

Flop: ($22) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $32</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $16

Turn: ($86) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $76</font>, Hero?

[Speedlimits]

Flop call is good.
I lead turn here/call push.

[Keyser.]

Actually I think you can fold. flame away

[shpanko]

Yeah I like leading the turn and calling a shove, gives us some FE and commits us to the pot

[cs3]

well villain definietly is not folding at this point with only 70 behind.
you lost any fold equity you may have had by checking that turn.
i guess just fold now

[Irishman07]

I agree bet/call turn is best.

As played I guess you have to call. With all the outs you have folding would be -ev. And you can't shove because you're behind at the moment and he's not folding. Break out your luckbox and spike a 2 of hearts.

[Cue-Ball 66]

As played, how is it anything but a fold?

[shpanko]

Implied odds maybe, do we really think he's folding the river getting like a million to 1?

[cs3]

whatever you do, shoving can't be better than calling. its between fold and call. this is a simple math problem now. assume all 15 of your outs are good (this is obv overly optimisic), and assume that villain stacks off 100% of the time on the river.
(im being lazy so someone else can work out the math).

[Irishman07]

What do you put his range as?

I think a conservative range is JJ/33/JQ/A10ss/AJss/K10ss. And thats really tight. Against that range you're 29.5%. Your direct pot odds are 31.9%. If he has anything at all you'll bust him for sure with the straight outs that don't make the flush, and he's not folding a set if you make the flush. This call is pretty close to neutral ev, but I'm pretty certain its slightly +ev.