NL 200 on FT. Bad river against a mega-fish. Call or fold?

[flytrap]

Villain is horrible, 68/3/.79. Seems like I'm beat on the river, but the odds are good. Call or muck?
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $388.00
BB: $78.00
UTG: $689.55
UTG+1: $195.00
Hero (MP1): $209.30
MP2: $200.00
CO: $2.00
BTN: $310.35

MP2 posts $2.00
Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG calls $2.00, UTG+1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, 5 folds, UTG calls $8.00

Flop: ($25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $15.00</font>, Hero calls $15.00

Turn: ($55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $40.00</font>, UTG calls $40.00

River: ($135) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $50.00</font>, Hero ?

[TheRedRocket]

very low aggression so it doesnt seem like he bluffs especially on the river and he is either bluffing or has you beat.

[SABR42]

I raise the flop.

As played I call river, but not thrilled about it.

[flytrap]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop.

As played I call river, but not thrilled about it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Against most players I would raise the flop, but against a guy like this I often prefer calling. I just think it's one of those situations where it's better to value bet the fish than try to bluff them. I think I get more value by making a hand here, especially since I have so many outs on the flop. Are you suggesting a raise on the flop for a free card, or to try to win the pot?

[crunny]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise the flop.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, villain seems like a calling station so FE is pretty small here.

[too eazy]

FE doesn't matter.

You're ahead of 95% of his possible holdings % wise.

Get it in while it's good.

[BT2]

raise flop so you can push the Q turn.

[flytrap]

[ QUOTE ]
FE doesn't matter.

You're ahead of 95% of his possible holdings % wise.

Get it in while it's good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. If he has a pair, I'm technically ahead but it's basically a coinflip. 95% is way too high an estimate. Hands like A9 or Q9 are part of his range, and I'm a dog to them. I maintain that against a guy like this, it's better to make a hand and value bet than to try to push him off his hand. I have a hand with huge value-bet potential if the right card comes.

[crunny]

[ QUOTE ]
FE doesn't matter.

You're ahead of 95% of his possible holdings % wise.

Get it in while it's good.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. our objective is to get better hands to fold OR stack villain when we hit and lose the least when we dont. basically FE and implied odds.

And i think villain has a strong draw or made hand here, because of his low agg factor.

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
very low aggression so it doesnt seem like he bluffs especially on the river and he is either bluffing or has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

.79 isn't low at all. I definitely call here.