QUIZ: (possibly helpful to noobs)

[cs3]

is the ponit of this thread to rank the hands in terms of outright equity vs villains range on the flop, or to rank them in order of which hands are more profitable to push the fop with knowing that villain sometimes calls with better and sometimes folds worse???

[curious123]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
'rank the hands fom best to worst' - not quite clear what this means. Is it, which has the greatest equity against villain's calling range? Or, which has the most positive difference in EV between pushing and the best alternative line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Greatest ev given how the hand was played.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jamougha]

Looking in pokerstove it seems 43 > 98 = AK > 77 under a wide range of conditions, and JJ fits into different places under different assumptions. Probably top at MSNL but maybe not at SSNL.

[RainbowBright]

Hero's equity given Villain's calling range

The point of this post was to illustrate that when calculating the EV of Fold Equity that the frequency in which the Villain will fold is only half the equation, the other significantly important factor which needs to be calculated is the Hero's equity vs the Villain's calling range. When determining the Hero's equity vs the Villain's calling range it's imperative to consider how many of your outs are clean vs the Villain's entire range.

The key component left out of the OP was the Villain's calling range. We can determine exactly the highest EV if we know the Villain's calling range. (I haven't done this kind of calculation in a long time and I don't have a PC, so I can't use Pokerstove but I have a general idea of the EV of these various hands. But maybe one of you could double check my work.) Now as Jam alluded to different players at different levels will stack off with a different ranges of hands. MSNL Villain's can and often will make this call with 77-99. I remember a post not to long ago when Fsldux did just against TWPs AK in a very similar pot. On the other hand, a significant number of SSNL Villain's will only call with TPTK or better. So let's look at those two scenarios and see how the equity of our hands change based on the Villain's calling ranges.

Hero's equity against various calling ranges
Villain's calling range (TPTK or better):
Hero's EV: 43 > 98 > JJ > AK > 77

Villain's calling range (any pair or better)
Hero's EV: JJ > 43 > 98 = AK > 77

Somebody will probably have to double check that for me, but I think it's pretty close. I'd be surprised if JJ has much more than 43 to be honest in the final scenario.

Specific Hands
77 has little EV because when we are called and are behind we are drawing to only two outs.

43 has a lot of EV regardless of Villain's calling range.

JJ is a made hand and has decent equity against Villain's ranges. But I think it's quite interesting that if the Villain's calling range is TPTK or better that it can be slightly less than a gut draw.

98 and AK: I find 98 to be the most interesting hand. It's a gut draw to 4 outs. However, it almost always has more EV than AK which could appear to have 6 clean outs against most of Villain's hands (and if you think about it 6 outs are 150% more outs than 4). However, the gut draw will have significantly higher EV compared to AK against a tight calling range by the Villain because AK will often be drawing close to dead. Therefore, AKs out aren't all clean. On the other hand, the gut draws outs are always clean vs the Villain's entire range (of course the Villain could make a full house later on but whatever).

The point of the post was to demonstrate that it's imperative to understand how the equity of different hands change based on Villain's calling range and when taking this into consideration to remember to consider how clean your outs are given the stronger part of a Villain's range.

(I'm sorry if I kinda rambled at the end. I hope it was helpful to some of the noobs. And I learned alot about what different posters think Villain will call with, so thx.)

[cs3]

rainbow-
good post, but i think its important to at least mention that calling is often the best play in situations like this... as it often is with JJ and 77 on the given board depending on villain.

[RainbowBright]

OT: For a great article about Villain's calling ranges be sure and read JMan's excellent Bluff article which is my second favorite of his (next to G-Bucks).

Jman's Bluff Article about using bet sizes to exploit Villain's calling range.

I wasn't planning on writing anything else about that. But if you read Jman's article, he more or less suggests that you should base your bet size inorder to elicit a particular action from your opponents calling range vs opponent's folding range vs opponents raising range. Just read his article he explains it consisely.

However, I think this is why MSNL calling range is so much looser than SSNL calling range and why Fsledux will call with middle pair against TWP in a similar situation as the OP. In the OP, when the Hero pushes over the Villain's continuation bet, the Villain should then put the Hero on a range of hands that the Hero would push with. And alot of Villain's might ask themselves, why would the Hero push with a very strong hand on a relatively dry board? Don't most Hero's call with their mediocre made hand and very strong hands on this board? (Of course this gets into metagame considerations and flow and all those things).

But JMan's article is really great if you haven't read it already. A good example of JMan's article was a Hero call by Jayriall (sp?) in a recent post.
Jay's Hero call based on Villain's bet size

[RainbowBright]

[ QUOTE ]
rainbow-
good post, but i think its important to at least mention that calling is often the best play in situations like this... as it often is with JJ and 77 on the given board depending on villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely right here CS3.

I chose those hands not because I thought it was the right was to the play the hands but only inorder to illlustrate a point.

[frankpark9]

1. jj
2. 34
3. 77
4. ak
5. 89

[UOPokerPlayer]

C, B, D, E, A,

[curious123]

[ QUOTE ]
Off the top of my head I guess JJ, 43, 98, AK, 77

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I get, assuming an "aggressive 2p2 who 3-bets light" is rr'ing { 22+, AJ+, Axs, KQ, KJs-97s, QJs-76s, KTs } (17%), autobetting the flop, and not calling off overly tight. In this case JJ is jamming for value, albeit rather thin.