10/20 LO8b - Not too exciting, but standard, weak or neutral EV fold?

pipes · #1 06-19-2007, 11:10 PM

This one is not too exciting. Just trying to get into the habit of posting more often and I played a short session today.

Preflop, I raised because of a few folds and I think in general my hand plays better shorthanded because of AK and little backup for low. Villain slightly aggressive, but had never seen him 3bet.

Couldn't see myself scooping, didn't think the pot was big enough to pursue. Not sure what I was hoping to catch on the turn though lol...maybe a club.

Thoughts?

PokerStars 10/20 Omaha/8 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.75 BB

bbartlog · #2 06-19-2007, 11:31 PM

Too weak IMO. In order for you to be beat on the turn, opponent has to have a better low *and* two pair or better, which is a fairly restricted range of hands. I would give opponent credit for A23x or AAxx; in either case opponent has only about one chance in four of having you beat both ways, though A23x could obviously also be freerolling you even if you still have a better high on the turn. Anyway, if you call turn and (presumably) another bet on the river, you pay two BB and (if you are still good for half) get back 4.4BB - so you need to be good for either high or low half the time, and I you'll probably be good more like 2/3 of the time.

pipes · #3 06-20-2007, 12:08 AM

Thanks. What if we say his range is something like AAxx like 70% of time, A2Kx or A3Kx 20% of time and soemthing like A23x the other 10%? Sound reasonable or change things at all? Thought at best I was currently tying him for high.

Once I brick on turn, I felt my chances to scoop were basically zero. This assump correct?

On turn, the pot is 5.75 BB after he bets. If I'm going for half, 2.875 BB...then I need to get half 41% of time?

Truthiness24 · #4 06-20-2007, 01:15 AM

That sounds about right. His hand is screaming SET OF ACES IMHO. But I think you can call this one down and expect to get half a whole lot of the time, at least 2/3 of the time as said above.

If Villain is the type that would 3-bet an A23, you would have picked up on that & probably posted the question differently, if at all. I just don't see that here. But even if it were, you're still ahead to take high.

Call it down and expect to take 1/2.

You can't scoop very often (probably never to 1% of the time), but if you constantly fold in this spot you're going to be exploited b/c it's -EV (suboptimal) to fold. I base that opinion on the 3-bet, the pot size when you folded, and the texture of the board. That is why the play is soft, I think.

TxRedMan · #5 06-20-2007, 01:15 AM

it's a -ev fold, and usually a neutral ev call down.

too weak.

call down.

Buzz · #6 06-20-2007, 04:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]Pipes - What turn card are you looking for? You're out of position so that you have to expect CO to usually bet the turn after you check. If you're only continuing when the turn is an ace, king, or eight, then you have eight outs, and probably for half the pot. Thus it's 37 to 8 against your continuing (and probably for half the pot). If for half the pot, you're going to split everything that goes in henceforth, which means when you win half, you get half of is already in the pot plus you get your own fresh money back.

37*(-1 small bet) = -37 small bets
8*(7.5/2 small bets) = + 30 small bets

That's assuming you'll win half the pot when you catch one of your outs on the turn (and ignoring the possibility of you scooping).

Thus by continuing after the turn, figured admittedly crudely, your e.v. is -7/45 small bets. Since the number is negative, continuing if drawing for one of the eight outs specified above has unfavorable odds.

What it boils down to, in my humble opinion, is if you're not going to bet this flop, and if it's 37 to 8 against you continuing to a bet on the turn, then you should fold on the second betting round when your opponent bets.

In other words, you stayed in the pot one betting round too many.

The other thing you might look at is the ill advised pushy pre-flop raise from mid-position with this tepid but pulling hand.

You played this hand like a tennis player who has a big first serve and little else - smash and that's fine unless your opponent hits the ball back.

Buzz

pipes · #7 06-21-2007, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]Pipes - What turn card are you looking for? You're out of position so that you have to expect CO to usually bet the turn after you check. If you're only continuing when the turn is an ace, king, or eight, then you have eight outs, and probably for half the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz, the turn cards I'm really hoping to catch are an Ace, or a high club (9c, Qc, or Jc). Decent cards are the other clubs, kings, queens, and jacks. Just anything that preserves the chance I still could be playing for the whole thing.

Most of the time, I think the 8s hurt me more than help...but its probably close.

So that's why I peeled. The turn put out one of the worst possible cards so I folded. (Although that appears to be a mistake.)

pipes · #8 06-21-2007, 01:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
it's a -ev fold, and usually a neutral ev call down.

too weak.

call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I agree now. Especially after seeing some hands some players were 3 betting with later on the session. A22J, KKJ4 etc. Even in the worst case scenario...AAxx, A2KX .. he still needs to use all 4 cards to scoop.

TxRedMan · #9 06-21-2007, 03:32 AM

i agree that raising this hand is a mistake. it shuts out hands you want to play with who usually will come along, and it gets called by hands you're a dog to or even money with, and you're OOP.

but, i cant see folding here, ever, unless i know the opponent. villain has to have a very specific hand for him to scoop us on the turn.

Buzz · #10 06-21-2007, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the turn cards I'm really hoping to catch are an Ace, or a high club (9c, Qc, or Jc). Decent cards are the other clubs, kings, queens, and jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]Pipes - The aces and kings are what I would consider stand alone cards. You'd like to improve, but maybe trip aces with a king kicker will win and maybe two pairs, aces and kings, will win. Those five cards (the aces and kings) are iffy, but I'll count them as whole outs for the turn.

However, the clubs are not stand alone cards. For the queen of clubs you still need another club or a jack on the river. Similarly for the jack of clubs you still need another club or a queen on the river. For the rest of the clubs, you need another club (or an ace or king) on the river.

And the other queens and jacks are not stand alone cards either. For the other queens you still need a jack (or an ace or king) on the river. For the other jacks you still need a queen (or an ace or king) on the river.

Tabulating:
5*19/44 scoop outs, ace or king
5*25/44 half pot outs, ace or king
2*10/44 scoop outs, Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2*7/44 half pot outs, Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
1*7/44 scoop outs, 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
1*7/44 half pot outs, 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
7*14/44 half pot outs, low clubs
6*9/44 scoop outs, non-club Q or J

Thus you have 21 cards with which you can continue, but they're not all what you should consider "outs."

2.1 scoop outs, ace or king
2.8 half pot outs, ace or king
0.5 scoop outs, Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
0.3 half pot outs, Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
0.2 scoop outs, 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
0.2 half pot outs, 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2.2 half pot outs, low clubs
1.2 scoop outs, non-club Q or J

So maybe 4.0 outs to scoop and 5.5 outs for half the pot is a better way to figure your outs. if you want to insist your half pot outs are worth half the scoop outs, then you have about the equivalent of 6.75 scoop outs. (I'd count the half pot outs as worth less than the scoop outs, but I don't feel like quibbling about it).

But those outs involving aces and kings are very iffy.

What it boils down to, in my humble opinion, is you don't have enough stuff to continue with a check/call after the flop.

I think you either make a move (bluff) on the flop or you check/fold. Once you decide not to bluff the flop (probably a wise decision), then I don't think you have enough to call, because you're simply not going to connect often enough on the turn.

That's all on the basis of your folding on the turn if you don't get a turn card you're hoping to catch...[ QUOTE ]
an Ace, or a high club (9c, Qc, or Jc). Decent cards are the other clubs, kings, queens, and jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]If you're going to fold on the turn without one of the cards you specified, then you should fold instead on the flop.

Buzz