Theory Question: Placing Backup Bets / Trading Out

[eekchac]

okay, here the situation:

Sunday evening, just before the soccer match:

Team Red vs Team Blue

i am sure, Team Blue wins, i get odds of 1.90

i place 2units: $200,00
if team Red wins, i lose 200,00, if they play draw, i lose 200,00, if team Blue wins, i win 380,00 (180,00 profit)

now the game starts bad... my teams is likely to lose. i am sure my money is gone. but in the 70' minute, the unexpected even occurs... my team Blue scores 0-1, now i am in the money!

i expect the hometeam Red to win the game in 7% of the cases.
i expect the game to draw at 1-1 in 66% of teh cases.
i expect the team Blue to ship the 0-1 home in 27% of teh cases.

the odds in 75' Minute are:
26.0 for Win of Hometeam Red.
5.25 for Draw.

So, how do i have to place my bets, to maximize my winnings, based on my expectations?

in the hurry i placed 55$ on Draw. The game ended 1-1 and i had a profit of:

$55,00 * 5,25 - $200,00 - $55,00 = $33,75
if they would have won 0-1:
$200,00 * 1,90 - $55,00 - $200,00 = $125,00

so, i know i did a mistake, as i placed no bet on the home team, as i expected them to win... or was their chance so low? that i rather let the money go, than placing another bet?
as i expect teh game to tie in 2 of 3 cases, i should bet more on Draw? how much? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
turn the profit into a 2:1 ratio aswell?

Thanks in advance.

[The Camel]

If your team was 1.90 to win pre match and they are 1-0 up with 15 minutes to go there is absolutely no way there is a 66% chance the game will finish 1-1.

The chances are more like:

80% Blue win
18% Draw
2% Red win

You shouldn't trade out of a bet unless the new bet is value too.

[dudeimstoked]

just choose the winning team from the start.

[eekchac]

NO, i was watching teh game live! it was a one way game on the blue's GOAL, whole game! it was 18-2 shoots on goal for Team Red... the chances were my opinion! The Team Red was clearly dominating and the goal for Team Blue was ABSOLUTELY undeserved!

And teh trade out came into teh plan, as my team was leading! and i wanted to safe money!!! but the maximum... but how do i get the numbers to place on Draw and Team Red?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
NO, i was watching teh game live! it was a one way game on the blue's GOAL, whole game! it was 18-2 shoots on goal for Team Red... the chances were my opinion! The Team Red was clearly dominating and the goal for Team Blue was ABSOLUTELY undeserved!

And teh trade out came into teh plan, as my team was leading! and i wanted to safe money!!! but the maximum... but how do i get the numbers to place on Draw and Team Red?

[/ QUOTE ]

before you were saying you wanted to maximize profits, but now it sounds as if you want to ensure the same profit regardless of the final result. if the latter is the case, use a three-way arbitrage calculator to balance the bet sizes. if it is the former, use a kelly/bet size calculator to determine the appropriate bet sizes for draw and the red team (run two separate calculations).

[eekchac]

yes Homer, that was my problem...

on Poker, $200 pot QQ vs AA

.19 to win with QQ
.004 to tie
.806 to lose.

so my estimated value is: .19 * 200 + .004 * 200 = $38,8

so if i balance my bets now, to get equal payout on red/draw/blue... i'd shoot my own legs [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

so my question is: should i balance my payout to be 7%/66%/27% as this is my expectation, that i am certain of? or am i mixing my toughts up somewhere?

[ImStillBen]

I love you people.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I love you people.

[/ QUOTE ]

i feel sorry for you.

[Limpfold]

[ QUOTE ]


so my question is: should i balance my payout to be 7%/66%/27% as this is my expectation, that i am certain of? or am i mixing my toughts up somewhere?

[/ QUOTE ]

You certainly are mixing your thoughts up. As a previous poster suggested your expectation numbers are way off.
If the game was Scunthorpe v Man Utd or your team played with 9 men and an outfielder as goalie I'd consider hedging.

[Thremp]

There is a point where hedging will max your geometric mean, but I'm gonna guess you aren't really considering those types of things. I'd just not hedge and bet additional outcomes as they present +EV opps.