400 NL : river decision overpair double paired board

[docnuclear]

I am pretty standard tag 22/18/3, he doesn't seem good : 47/9/3.3 on 30 hands

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $599.55
Hero (SB): $396
BB: $394
UTG: $455.50
MP: $186.30
CO: $276.90

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, CO calls $4, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $18</font>, BB folds, CO calls $14

Flop: ($40) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $32</font>, CO calls $32

Turn: ($104) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $77</font>, CO calls $77

River: ($258) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ??

[EWS87]

this is tough...there is nothing that can be definitively said about this hand...id like to say nothing can call you on the river but it seems like hed play 66-88 this way and could call you...if you check and he bets big its a fold

maybe making a defensive bet of 86 and fold to a raise...if he has flush he wont raise and youll get to showdown without having to make huge call...and he could conceivably pay this bet off with worse

[-DT-]

i dont really see much value in betting. very read dependent spot but id check and evaluate

[docnuclear]

OK so I checked he bets all in which is 149, what then ???

[CopTHIS]

Depending on villian I'd prob either shove the river (with the effective stack size here) or c/f. By the looks of it you are probably better off putting the $150 in yourself, based on his stats, but as you checked you have to think he'll value push a worse hand enough rather than check behind to justify a call - which looks unlikely tbh. It's possible he'll show up with some crap, like an up and down straight draw, but not enough I would think.

[terp]

if you check it's to c/f

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
if you check it's to c/f

[/ QUOTE ]

[EWS87]

wow i didnt notice stack sizes

anyway if thats what he did then fold

looking back the turn bet is too small but that probably wouldnt have mattered here

[docnuclear]

[ QUOTE ]
wow i didnt notice stack sizes

anyway if thats what he did then fold

looking back the turn bet is too small but that probably wouldnt have mattered here

[/ QUOTE ]

How much would you bet on the turn ?
Who would shove river ?

[duh]

I prob check fold.

Against a more standard opponent thogh, shove is fine.