Story of Variance and Tilt

[Nairb]

One of the things I have had a hard time with in MTT is variance and how to not tilt when that inevitable bad beat comes along. But what about 2, 3 or even 5 bad beats back to back that make you question, "What am I doing wrong?"

I am primarily a small stakes online player. I play 20 to 30 5 to 20 table MTT SNG on Stars weekly and have run around a 15% ROI over last 700 or so, generally profiting 200 to 300 dollars per week for my efforts. I play mainly for the competition moreso than the money as I recognize though I am not a beginner per sae I still have a lot to learn. Part of learning is sharing ones own experiences that may help another avoid the same errors.

I had been on a hot streak and profited over $500 net in two days and felt like I could not be beaten, finising ITM in 4 straight $12 180 turbos with one first place finish, and then everything goes wrong.

Last night I played in 6 tourneys and got knocked out with 6 bad beats in a row. First in a $12 180 I got it all in against that wonderful player that raised to 90, 3xbb in second level and I look down at AKs and promptly reraise to 300. Then UTG pushes, I call and he shows 4 6 sooted. YOu know the rest he made 2 pair on the turn and river to knock me out in 162nd place. That was followed by losing with KK vs 89 in an all in confrontation, QQ vs JJ, Flopped nut straight only to have my opponent river a full house after pushing over the top of my re-raise with a pair of deuces and, you guessed it he made a set on the turn and the board paired on the river.

When I first started playing I would have gone crazy, blaming pokerstars, reading the crazy "online poker is rigged" posts and saying, wow they may have a point. Now I get up, turn my laptop and realize it may not be my night but smile knowing the fish that make bad calls are not really gone like many say.

I guess my point is to maybe help someone starting to play this game that variance is a very normal part of the game and tha difference for me now vs when I first started playing is knowing when to just walk away from it for the day or until the emotions from taking several horrendous beats in a row have worn off. Bottom line is even though I lost those tourneys I would play every one of the hands the same as a +ev play is always +ev regardless of the outcome of the hand.

So when you have one of those nights like we all have, like I had last night when you just cannot seem to win even when you dominate your opponent when the money goes in, remember to take a deep breath and walk away when you need to. Regroup, read a chapter or two of your favorite book( I have HOH I II and III as my bathroom reading material) and remember that a hand well played is still a hand well played regardless of the outcome and +ev moves will always net you profit over time even with the inherent variance and the tilt that goes along with it. If at any time you feel a beat is keeping you from playing strong, patient +ev poker it is time to take a break and regroup.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I play 20 to 30 5 to 20 table MTT SNG on Stars weekly and have run around a 15% ROI over last 700 or so

[/ QUOTE ]
That's too few to have much confidence in the 15% ROI figure.

The standard deviation of a 45 player SNG is 2.8 buy-ins if your finishes are evenly distributed, and the standard deviation is 4.8 buyins for a 180 player SNG. Winning players may be expected to have slightly higher standard deviations, but let's ignore that. The standard deviation of your ROI after 700 tournaments is between 280%/sqrt(700) and 480%/sqrt(700), between 10.5% and 18%. Call it 14%. A 95% confidence interval would be from -13% to 43%.

While you have some evidence that you are a winning player from those results, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if your ROI were 5% instead of 15%. A common cause of frustration is to set your expectations too high by hoping that an initial good streak represents your true win rate.

It takes many more MTTs than STTs to determine whether you are a winning player, and to estimate your win rate accurately.

[ QUOTE ]
generally profiting 200 to 300 dollars per week for my efforts.

[/ QUOTE ]
For you to be making $10/tournament with a 15% ROI, the buy-in needs to be $60. Is that what you are doing, or did you state the wrong number of tournaments?

[Nairb]

Sharkscope shows 14% ROI, at least last time I looked. Only had PT for last 200 or so tourneys and ran really good during that time so the 34% it shows is not accurate. Not sure exactly what ROI I have all time but have never played a buy in as high as 60. I mainly play 6.50 and 12 45 man SNG and the 12 180 turbos, but just started the 180s in the last month or so.

Once again not a brag post but I have learned that sharing what I have learned, even if a smallish sample size, it helps me to learn more as well from the responses I get.

As far as me making 200-300 a week playing that is online cash (25nl), online tourneys, and home game aggregate average over the last year or so.

PS screenname is bcartervol98 is you want to look me up but I am blocked from the free search on SS so you would have to be a member.

[Nairb]

Here is a graph showing how hopeless I am at STT but in the MTT SNGs I have done quite well, especially barely a year into my poker experience. Not a brag but I am tired of posting things and my posts being picked apart because some little subtle deviation when the body of the post was not intended to be a brag, just somewhat helpful info that maybe others that are where I was a year ago dropping $$$$ into STTs, going on tilt, and not really understanding tournament play could pull some help from.

One question though, why would ones STT record be so opposite from the MTT. In your experience what conditions or styles could exist that would make a winning player, albeit a smaller sample size in MTT SNG, go to an extremely losing player when it comes to STT? I have not figured that one out as the most simple way to look at it is in a STT I only have to outlast 6 people to get ITM and in a MTT 45 man you have to outlast 38 others. Could it be that my short table game needs a lot of work or is the quality of play that much higher in a STT than the 5 to 20 table MTT ?

[image][/image]