How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?

[DarkMagus]

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I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown).
I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand.
My expected value was 600,087 chips.
I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips.
Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck..
I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result.
Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?


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You'd get a better response in the Probability section, but what the hell.

Assuming you're 51.4% to win every time (which isn't quite true, but I can't make any better approximation with the info you've given). You won about 146/352 of the all-ins, if I've understood your numbers correctly. Using the cumulative binomial distribution, your probability of running this bad is roughly 0.01% or about 1 in 10,000.

Obviously this isn't going to be quite right since you weren't always 51.4% to win the hand, sometimes you are dominated and sometimes you have the other guy dominated. Also I calculated the 146/352 by using the number of chips you gave, not the number of all-ins you actually won, which you didn't give. If you ran worse in the big pots than in the little pots, then this also skews the % by quite a lot.