KK - scary opponents scary board, what's the right play?

[Bob T.]

Ok, right off the bat, I'm open to discussion on any parts of this hand, but what the best play on the turn is, is what I really am interested in.

UTG, ( 6/3 for 60 hands open raises), the next player a loose (50% vpip) coldcalls, because that is what he does. I have K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and threebet. So far, So good, I don't think that UTG's range is so tight, that I can't play KK here, and even if it was, the coldcaller probably gives me an overlay.

But, next player (16/0 over 60 hands) caps it. OK, what do you think his fourbetting range is? Yeah, me too, the only question is, what color are they.

Everyone else finds a fold, and the four of us see the flop. ( 8.5 Big bets)

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Good news, bad news.

Three checks, and the capper bets, UTG, and the loose guy fold, and I checkraise. Here is my first question, he doesn't have a flush yet, should I just smooth call here, and let him keep betting, and hope for a checkraise later on if no more hearts appear, or is it better to get my raise in here, and take control of the betting, I really don't want to be giving free cards on the turn, and if there is no improvement, if I don't lead out, the river is going to get checked through.

Turn, 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Ok, now my opponent either has the flush, and I am drawing to ten outs, or he doesn't, and he has one out for the win, and a 9 hearts for a chop.

What's the play here? Bet/call -check/fold the river. Or Check/call, check/call?

[Dazza1984]

Pump flop. Let him pay for draw. Checkcalling is very bad

[James.]

these players seem tight, but those samples really aren't large enough to draw serious conclusions. IOW, HU i'm seeing a showdown here UI. i'll try to comment on the rest of the hand later.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

hey bob, no way i don't gas the flop. i wouldn't want to have to check to the very last guy to get a c/r in when he could easily check behind the turn and i wouldn't want hearts killing my action either. if he has red AA here you're going to war anyways. that said i think leading the flop may even be better. there are some cautious types that might let that flop get checked through and there is a good chance you can get a bet-3-bet in on the flop.

anyways for turn. this is a really tricky/sucky spot but i tend to grit my teeth and bet and probably fold the river UI. i find that i am never ever bluff raised here, though sometimes i will check the turn and see what he does. if he bets the turn i will call, and that puts you in a real awkward spot because i have bet, folded and checkcalled the river, though i think all 3 have similar merits EV wise though *especially* online it is hard to not see a showdown.

if he checks the turn then i would fire the river.

[Kvacke]

Just bet out the flop and keep pumping when they raise u. The pot is big just dont stop raising until the turn card arrives. U may see how many callers are on the flop and if the heart ace may be out. If so check call, and call the river the pot is to big.

[shane88888]

So the villain only called your checkraise, right?

If you were the villain, and you had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], wouldn't you have reraised the flop? You would have tried to regain the lead and take a free card, or pump the pot if that's your thing.

I think you should have bet the flop -

1. The capper will almost always raise you. You're much more likely to get three or four bets in on the flop when you bet out. With that board, I'd pump the flop.

2. If you bet out and get raised, you'll have a better shot at getting rid of UTG and the loosey. The pot is big; eliminating your opponents is more important than eeking out an extra bet. I don't think you want T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hanging around. You'll also get a better idea of where the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is if UTG or the loosey coldcalls (well, I guess not so much from loosey).

I think bet/call, check/fold UI is the way to go.

[James.]

i would bet/3bet the flop.

given the turn card against an unknown i would probably bet/call. postflop aggression tendencies would allow me to better assess the consideration of the option of folding on the river UI.

thing is, i see players with very tight PF statistics frequently get out of line postflop. this lends me to want to showdown. if the pot was smaller i think i could find a fold, but unless he's pretty passive postflop(i don't think it was really indicated)i'm paying off.

[PokerBob]

Bet the flop so that Mr. AA can raise and make a guy with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fold. Plus then you can 3bet with the best hand AND 7 outs to improve.

[Bob T.]

Yeah, I agree that betting the flop was the right play. I certainly missed that one.

[Bob T.]

OK, first, I think that betting the flop, and threebetting the likely raise would be a lot better than checkraising like I did.

On the turn, the fourth heart comes, and there are pretty much two situations, one my opponent has the Ace of hearts, and in that case, I have ten outs on the river. My equity is around 3 bets, and if I bet, it costs me three bets to get to a showdown, just in case I'm ahead. I don't think betting in this case is a mistake.

On the other hand, if my opponent doesn't have the Ace of hearts, he has about two bets equity, 1 out for a win, and 9 outs for a chop. Now, he's a player who hasn't raised for 60 hands, and now he fourbet. I would guess that he wouldn't threebet very often without aces either, and if he projects that onto me, and he assumes that I have aces, that means that I have to have the ace of hearts, and he is drawing dead. For that matter, if I have any heart, he is drawing dead. If I bet here, and he folds, I win the extra equity that he would get by calling and catching either another ace, or another heart. I think that betting in this case is very important, and if my opponent folds, I make a little equity that I wouldn't have.

As it was, I bet the turn, and he folded. At the time, I thought that that was a bad result for me, but after thinking about it, I realized that that was actually a good result for me.

Now if I had just bet the flop so that I could threebet it.