Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions

[Rick Diesel]

[ QUOTE ]
Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats and the way that he is playing remind me a lot of Kobe during his rookie year. I think you are WAY premature with the above comments.

[IrishHand]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big guys > Wing players

[/ QUOTE ]
debatable

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big guys > Wing players

[/ QUOTE ]
debatable

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think duncan is the only true big you can say this about definitively. i don't think this is true even for guys like garnett or yao.

edit:
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with all you wrote except Melo. He hasn't been all that great. He's playing better this year, though. Let's see if that 3 point range is real.

Even with Melo's improvement, Dwight's better.

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah you're right about melo, but my point was just that there have been and are wings projected to be better than dwight howard based on rookie play. i can go look for some more, but those 3 sprang to mind.

[Billy Bibbit]

[ QUOTE ]
if not his poor start, then what is the projection based on? it can't be on his draft reports b/c beyond the strength issues he was deemed to be capable of greatness.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, it's because "very unlikely to be as good as Dwight Howard" is the default, even for someone as highly touted as Durant was/is. He has shown nothing that makes me rate him higher than I did in June, but the fact that he's been a little disappointing so far isn't the main reason I'm saying this.

Maybe we just disagree on how good Dwight Howard is going to be.

Wait, are you comparing Durant's future value to how good Howard is right now? In that case you're probably right, but doesn't it make more sense to talk about the future of both of them when they're both very young players?

[ QUOTE ]

i can think of three from the same draft: wade, lebron, and melo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't remember anyone predicting at this point of his rookie season that Wade would be this good. I do remember people predicting that Anthony would be a Top 5 player, but that probably wasn't that great of a prediction. James is the one guy in the last twenty years I was referring to.

[ QUOTE ]
His stats and the way that he is playing remind me a lot of Kobe during his rookie year. I think you are WAY premature with the above comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of players showed those kind of flashes when they were rookies and only three of them became Bryant, James, and Wade. That's why people are saying Durant is unlikely to be as good as Howard. When Bryant was a rookie, one would have also considered him unlikely to reach the level of a Top 5 player in the NBA.

[capone0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big guys > Wing players

[/ QUOTE ]
debatable

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kobe might be more talented but he isn't a better basketball player than Duncan. Guarding the paint is huge in the NBA. Most teams don't have it and truly need it. Kobe is a great force, great wing defender but if you can't guard the paint you can't win in the NBA.

[tarheeljks]

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe we just disagree on how good Dwight Howard is going to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't disagree that howard will get better

[ QUOTE ]
Wait, are you comparing Durant's future value to how good Howard is right now? In that case you're probably right, but doesn't it make more sense to talk about the future of both of them when they're both very young players?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, that's my point here. the statement was that durant would not have the level of impact of howard (among others), i interpreted this as being howard's impact in terms of his performance to date. if we're talking about career projections then howard probably projects to be better than durant, but i think this is beside the point. i would still rather have durant b/c as someone said earlier we're talking about winning championships, not jersey sales, or in this case all star selections, double doubles. howard may project to be better than durant, but durant has a better chance of becoming the type of player that can carry a team to a championship (i know, different discussion). imo howard is in the class of player that is very good, but not good enough to carry a team to a ring-- something similar to that gold superstar article or w/e.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i think we are disagreeing mostly on how good howard is going to be. kid's only 21 and he doesn't even really know how to play offense yet. he can average 20+ pts easily without even developing his game much further. in a couple years i don't think something like 26/14 is unreasonable for him annually.

look, durant is only 18. we will all give him time, but projecting him to be a perennial all-star at this age is a bit silly, just as its silly to dismiss him because of his poor start as well.

[Fallen Hero]

"San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade."

I don't know how this hasn't gotten any comments yet, of course they would trade Duncan for Lebron, they wouldn't even think about it.

[kidcolin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Big guys > Wing players

[/ QUOTE ]
debatable

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Scarcity makes them more valuable even if you think that they have equal impact on the court (which they don't). Kobe is a better basketball player than Duncan. Better skills in almost every measurable area. But he's not nearly as valuable. San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade. No chance. Championships are more significant than jersey sales.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kobe might be more talented but he isn't a better basketball player than Duncan. Guarding the paint is huge in the NBA. Most teams don't have it and truly need it. Kobe is a great force, great wing defender but if you can't guard the paint you can't win in the NBA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad someone pointed this out. People screw up the scarcity/value/"talent"/better thing too much. The problem with a statement like "better skills in almost every measurable area" is that "skills" almost always means athletic ability and shooting (jump shot, ft's, etc). Is Kobe a better rebounder? No. Does he defend his position better than Duncan defends his? No. Is he a better help defender? No. Does he pass out of double teams as effectively? No.

It's got nothing to do with scarcity. It has everything to do with the definition of "skill". I mean, there were plenty of great 2s in the league in MJ's time, and you couldn't make the same argument. David Robinson/Olajuwon would be swapped for MJ straight up in a heartbeat.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
"San Antonio wouldn't trade Duncan for LeBron, for Kobe, for Wade."

I don't know how this hasn't gotten any comments yet, of course they would trade Duncan for Lebron, they wouldn't even think about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only because of age.