Way-Too-Early NBA Rookie of Year Predictions

[Chris Daddy Cool]

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Even from a sample as small as we have now, I think it's pretty fair to say that it is extremely unlikely he will ever have the impact of a Howard, James, Garnett, etc.

I'm eagerly awaiting Bill Simmons's response to his whole Durant "best player evar" type stuff from last spring/summer.

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wow james and garnett maybe, but i think saying howard is selling him very short.

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I think its a pretty safe bet that Durant will never be as good as Howard is right now. Howard is just sick, somehow Orlando is 4th in defensive efficiency starting Rashard Lewis as power forward along with such defensive stalwarts as Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson.

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howard is playing very well this season but he is not a 20/10'er yet; the magic started off well last season too, but faded. i think we need to see more of durant to say this.

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yeah, hes more like a 20/14'er.

[tarheeljks]

his career is still young but he hasn't averaged 20+ points yet. however, he is obviously a board machine and a walking double double. my point isn't that howard isn't good; he is very good. i'm saying that saying durant won't have as much impact as howard is just a knee jerk reaction to a rough start.

[bottomset]

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his career is still young but he hasn't averaged 20+ points yet. however, he is obviously a board machine and a walking double double. my point isn't that howard isn't good; he is very good. i'm saying that saying durant won't have as much impact as howard is just a knee jerk reaction to a rough start.

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well he's averaging 22/14 right now, and I think his current play level is the likely future play level

[Billy Bibbit]

It's not a knee-jerk reaction to say someone projects to have less impact than Dwight Howard. The number of rookie wing players who projected that high in the last twenty years is probably one.

Big guys > Wing players

[kidcolin]

meh.. I think people fall into a trap with the big guy/small guy thing. Being more valuable and being better aren't the same thing.

edit: probably poor word choice on my part, but you're all smart gents and can figure it out

[MCS]

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Who votes for ROY? If it is journalists I think the PPG will sway things to Durant's corner no matter what other rookies do.

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Totally true. All anyone cares about is points per game.

Right now I'd go

(1) Al Horford
(2) Yi Jianlian
(3) Kevin Durant

so the same as OP.

[sethypooh21]

Though Horford has been impressive and obviously will be a solid NBA PF/C, actually watching Hawks games informs one that the numbers 'slightly' overestimate his performance. His offensive game is a mess (check the TOs), and he's gotten a fair bit of abuse on D (though this is partially coaching/scheme as Woodson is terrible at, well everything, but ingame adjustments especially).

Yi has been better than expected and KD hasn't quite lived up to the hype, but he's still been the best rookie, imo. Though that's only cause Moon has only been starting for the last 10 days.

Williams has been pretty decent recently, but the Nets have looked so fooking awful without VC that it's hard to say that he's for real yet.

Green started last night, which could up his status in the near future, though starting him alongside KD and Wilcox is just asking to get lit up on D/boards.

Top 5 for me is
KD
Yi
Moooooon
Horford
Williams

[tarheeljks]

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It's not a knee-jerk reaction to say someone projects to have less impact than Dwight Howard. The number of rookie wing players who projected that high in the last twenty years is probably one.

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if not his poor start, then what is the projection based on? it can't be on his draft reports b/c beyond the strength issues he was deemed to be capable of greatness. saying this about durant is based on projections of how much better you think howard will become, as opposed to whether durant can get to the level howard plays at now. garnett and lebron are in the discussion of top 5 nba players, howard is an all star.

i can think of three from the same draft: wade, lebron, and melo.

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Big guys > Wing players

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debatable

[kidcolin]

I agree with all you wrote except Melo. He hasn't been all that great. He's playing better this year, though. Let's see if that 3 point range is real.

Even with Melo's improvement, Dwight's better.

[IrishHand]

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even for a 26-year old rookie.


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have a link? i didn't know this had been confirmed

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I was joking. I believe he's 22.