50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)

[RapidEvolution]

Villain is 21/10/1 over 300 hands and I've seen him around a bit..I haven't seen him get spewy or out of line so far.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$63.60</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$10.00</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$53.00</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$68.20</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$34.50</font>)
BTN (<font color="#0000cc">$35.20</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$38.90</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$95.40</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 8 players) Hero is UTG A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls $2, <font color="#777777">4 folds</font>

I'm usually pretty tight UTG so the downside is that a thinking villain can put me on a pretty narrow range.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($4.75, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 goes all-in $66.2</font>, <font color="#777777">Hero ?</font>

When villain minraises my flop raise, I basically narrow him down to sets and overpairs (and possibly 2 pair if he happens to be the type to call a raise with ATC when stacks are deep...though I think this is done much more when the other player is in position). I thought he'd raise more with a set, so I repop him to 20 and he shoves. Do we find a fold here given villain's low AF and line so far?

[Baja15]

Yeah it's time to dump it. You've shown a lot of strength and villain doesn't seem to mind. This line means a set, straight or 2 pair almost all of the time from a villain with these stats

[ranka]

only thing - If I plan 3bet/fold then I would make it 18$. If you plan 3bet/call make 20$+.

I would fold and so I would 3bet to 18$.

[RapidEvolution]

That was another issue I was having. I was leaning towards folding if he shoved over, but was unsure about making a raise that didn't seem purely informational. I suppose 18 (and maybe 15?) accomplish this.

After hand, villain said he had KK, but I'm not really convinced. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ranka]

If he had KK - so it be. He played it badly and sooner or later you stack him with your set or other hand in much more better place.

[ship_it_trebek]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it's time to dump it. You've shown a lot of strength and villain doesn't seem to mind. This line means a set, straight or 2 pair almost all of the time from a villain with these stats

[/ QUOTE ]

This can easily mean overpair too though. I mean I'm not pumped about a call or a fold here, but his range isn't just hands we lose to. I've seen JJ-KK enough in this spot to possibly merit a call here. It seems like if stupid opponents flat a big pocket pair preflop, they always commit on a flop of unders.

Edit: I also never take chat into consideration after the hand.

[RapidEvolution]

I haven't seen this all that much (flatting in the BB with JJ/QQ/KK) so far. If I think it's something like...20% overpair/75% set/2pair 5% bluff...

I'm paying 41.60 to win 127.95. Let's say it's roughly 3-1

Let's also say that me hitting an A and him hitting (if he has an overpair) cancel out.

75% of the time, I lose 41.60: EV= -31
25% of the time, I win 128.00: EV= +27

I could be off on these percentages and I can't say I have enough hands at this level to estimate more accurately. Any thoughts?

[oober]

Tough spot, but I think a villian with vp$p will have overpair to board higher then 25% of the time. This would be an easy fold if villian runs &lt;15vp$p, but I'd probably call this 50% of the time, especially if I think I will see him around a lot.

Also if you are thinking about folding. a 16-18 bet would have accomplished the same as 20.

Would flat calling his min RR ever be ok here and evaluate on turn? Ala pot control?

[RapidEvolution]

I don't see many turn cards that improve our situation here. Villain's hard-pressed to think I hit a draw/set on this flop, so any medium card works more to his advantage than mine. What's the plan after just calling the flop raise? A agree about the bet size for sure, though.

[johnc]

A stat I often use in these situations to provide a bit more addition info is the cold-call PFR%. I use it basically to help differentiate the ATC deep-stack callers and the tighter/more str8 forward callers. The higher the number the more "likely" (or greater the chance) a board like this would have hit him. A lower number would indicate an overpair more likely. I also find it a valuable indicator of my PF steal chances.