50NL: AQs flops nut flush draw (line check)

O.T.G. · #1 11-20-2007, 04:14 AM

My check raise on the turn was kind of a steam raise after losing a pot on another table. What is the best line after flopping the nut flush draw and getting called?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($29.05)
UTG+1 ($12.05)
Hero ($61.90)
MP2 ($26.75)
MP3 ($50)
CO ($58.75)
Button ($41.30)
SB ($21.15)
BB ($58)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, CO calls $1.75, Button calls $1.75, 1 fold, BB calls $1.25.

Flop: ($7.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.5, CO calls $4.50, Button folds, BB calls $4.50.

Turn: ($20.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $14, BB folds, Hero raises to $55.65 (All-In), CO calls $38.50 (All-In).

River: ($128.90) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)
.

Final Pot: $128.90

customer_nr1 · #2 11-20-2007, 04:49 AM

I guess you should bet bigger on the flop since you have 50%+ equity, you'll have more FE with a bigger bet, and building the pot? The downsides are that you are OOP and you may drive off a smaller flush draw(?). On the turn I don't see a checkraise to be profitable since you're likely behind and I think he isn't folding enough after showing some strength. The same with betting out. So c/c if you have the odds.

customer_nr1 · #3 11-20-2007, 05:38 PM

Long/boring post follows...

Nobody replied yet besides me? That's suprising, I thought I will quickly get corrected...
So I thought about this hand all day long and I pretty much still don't know what to do. Here are my thoughts.
So his range(CO) on the turn consists of one-pair like Ts, overpairs, two-pairs, sets. Maybe some kind of draw but that's not so likely. The most likely holdings are some kind of Ten. Since you provided no reads I'm assuming that villain is a loose-passive player. Like 30/5/1.5? I don't know if that's a good assumption for an unknown on FTP though... Maybe I should assume something in the middle because there are donks and rocks(and a few good players) on the level?
Anyway if you checkraise him all-in I guess he will call with many hands of his range like 2pair set obv and many tens, I'm maybe weaktight but I would say he will call your all-in 70%. If he calls, you win like 25% of the time so you lose ((0.25*(128.9*0.95))-55.65=$25. If he doesn't call you win like $34, so 0.7*(-25)+0.3*34=-7.3. Not including the fact that BB could have a hand too. You could argue that 70% is too much but I guess the average donk is likely to call after he bets. The BE point is at 42% and you might have less outs if he only calls with stronger hands, even at 50% you only win like less than $5 so it's pretty sure CRAI is not the best move. That's like stating the obvious I know but I just want to be sure that I am understanding why it's not the best play.
About c/c:
you have to call $14 to win $45(the pot without rake), so the breakeven point is at 31.1%. I guess you have like 13 outs, your aces and queens are most likely good. So thats kind of breakeven, your EV equals with your implied odds. I guess you push if you hit your flush and maybe the same if you hit your ace/queen or you might just c/c with it Idk, but you have at least $10-20 EV with c/c. Obviously if he doesn't bet (which is quite likely) then you get your equity in the pot(0.3*20.75*0.95=~6) + the amount you can squeeze out from them if you hit, which is like $5-10 in average?
With betting out there you certainly get more implied odds with your flush, plus you get some folding equity but you risk your equity in the pot if they raise you. You can bet like $12-17 let's say you bet $14 as CO did. Then you lose ~$6 on the turn(0.3*$28-14) since you are behind(assuming you get one caller). Your implied odds are much more than that. I think your river all-in get called frequently if you hit your flush so you can make like $20-25 maybe more? Obv if you don't get called you win $20. At least 60% of the time you get called there so: 0.4*20+0.6*16.5=$17. Hmm that's a little more than c/c.

Well it seems to me that betting out is better. I hope I came to the right conclusion. Anyone confirm it? Do my calculations make some sense?
The lack of replies is maybe because because the thread is missing reads.