50NL fold Aces here? (ugh I hate saying that!!)

[customer_nr1]

Here's the absolute worst scenario imo:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: 8c 4d 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.578% 31.84% 00.74% 7249 169.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 67.422% 66.68% 00.74% 15183 169.00 { QQ, 88, 66, 44, 86s, 75s, 64s }

(I've only chose this range to demonstrate the breakeven point. Imo villain's range has much more overcard combos in it.)

I should add that I don't see such a tight villain call with suited one gappers. He might have position on you but there are still people left to act behind him preflop. Maybe a suited connector but no way a suited one gapper or trash like 84o, 64o, 57o.
Also there are 6 overpair possibilities on this board and if I only count 1 of them you have the odds. There are 9 combos for the set as always which are totally possible. You need 33% so you need like 5 combos of overcards. 5 combos of the possible 36 overpair combos. As I said you only need less than one overpair and you're good to go.

On a sidenote:
If you think that he only calls with hands that beat you why would you reraise here? More importantly: why whould you reraise and put more than 30% of your stack in the pot then fold?

[AlexB182]

customer, can you please confirm that your avatar picture is NOT a picture of you?

[customer_nr1]

No it's not, why did you ask? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Care to give your opinion on the hand in question?

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
No it's not, why did you ask? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
Care to give your opinion on the hand in question?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range is pretty accurate though I don't know why you left out KK,JJ.
Rapid, I agree that you can lay this one down, if you manage to do that ;-)
Customer: I just asked because that girl is completely different from the other girls in avatar pics...gf or sister? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[RapidEvolution]

(Was also distracted by customer's avatar) LOL

While I think that range is fine, I also think it's flawed in that pokerstove gives all these hands an equal likelihood. The re-raise (while it could be smaller) serves to narrow villain's range, get value from overpair hands, and (admittedly) establish where I am in the hand. Maybe this is incorrect.

[customer_nr1]

Lol it's from jailbait. You mean different=not hot? I feel insulted :-) (although Coordi's previous avatar was the absolute best, I acknowledge that...)

we're getting little OT here... :-)

[oober]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see many turn cards that improve our situation here. Villain's hard-pressed to think I hit a draw/set on this flop, so any medium card works more to his advantage than mine. What's the plan after just calling the flop raise? A agree about the bet size for sure, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I would be hoping to hit my A, although unlikey, I would try to keep pot as small as possible. I would probably call 12$ turn bet, but fold to more, and hopefully he checks on river. If I expect to see him as a reg, the info could be valuable even if you did lose.

The only reason I say this is there has been a rash of min CR's types playing lately. But I am not going broke with this.

What do you think he thinks about you? That could help you to make your decision.

[Galwegian]

Hey, I've just seen this thread (after I posted my version of the hand - I was villain to RE's hero). I had no idea that I was up against a 2+2 reg. It's interesting to see this hand from your point of view. I guess if I knew that I was up against such a solid player i would actually have been more confident abotu my bluff.

Something that I kind of vaguely thought about at the time - either I'm against a solid player i.e. at least a level 2 thinker (I suspected this to be the case) in which case he has aces and he will likely fold to a jam or I'm against a level 1 thinker and he might have JJ+ (even after his raise) and call with JJ/QQ. I don't know if this is a good way to think in this spot? Remember, I'm thinking as villain in this thread. Thoughts?

[ship_it_trebek]

So wait...you both posted an oddly similar hand with the same flop holding an overpair...and you were both either villain or hero both times?

/head asplodes

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
So wait...you both posted an oddly similar hand with the same flop holding an overpair...and you were both either villain or hero both times?

/head asplodes

[/ QUOTE ]Considering all the stack sizes are the same I'm going to say they played this hand against each other.